The United Nations was established on June 26, 1945 in the aftermath of World War II in an effort by the victorious Allied Powers to forge a new and lasting peace. World leaders believed collective security and constant dialogue to be the long run solution to global conflict. But many of the founders feared the new United Nations would follow the failed League of Nations if the UN lacked enforcement powers.

President Roosevelt, among others, envisioned an "executive committee" that would later become the Security Council. Theoretically, the five victorious powers (the Soviet Union, the Republic of China, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom would act as global policemen and collectively enforce the directives of the council. Since the powers were allies at the time of the council’s inception, it was envisioned that a cooperative effort toward peace would be maintained. Recently, the Council has undergone some restructuring and the new council will be active as of this year (2001).

In 1995, the United Nations General Assembly gave a directive for change the green light under resolution (A/49/768) to consider reforming the Charter. As a result of this inquiry, during the 50th session of the UN, member states presented their proposal outlines in resolutions (A/48/264, Add. 1 through 10). Recommendations were then presented by the already existing High-Level Working Group on the Question of Equitable Representation on and Increase in the Membership of the Security Council created in 1995. Recent events ranging from Chinese shifts of power and the newly independent Taiwan, and a unified Korea to the skirmishes in Russian/Chinese borders and Indian/Pakistani threats of nuclear confrontation made the post-cold war environment incredibly volatile. The latter half of the decade proved that a seemingly effective Security Council could not maintain peace or maintain any order. Germany and Japan kept pressing for permanent membership and regional security measures. The United States had been in full support of this as well since their proposal in 1995 was published. Still, countries such as Italy, India, and Brazil pressed for permanent membership. In fact, once the Special Committee on Restructuring the Security Council was in place during the 53rd session, third world countries, which compose about 2/3 of the UN membership made it clear that amending the Charter in order to expand the SC would require the presence of at least one permanent member from the developing world. Many countries pushed for Brazil and India as the front-runners.

Japan had already performed well in the Security Council nearly a decade ago. Its small military contributions and extensive financial contributions had brought it favorable support from the United States and other trading partners. Having had a sky-rocketing economic growth trend and reckoned an economic giant today, Japan has earned the right to exert itself in the political arena. But it has received some criticism from nations in the region. For example, Korean comments cite that Japan has not repaid its debt to victims of W.W.II. Also, it remains fearful of the growing Japanese military fearing that conflict "is in their blood (A/48/264, Add. 1)." Certainly, there are some feelings of animosity to be found by those nations that felt Japan’s wrath during the war; however, its policies over the course of the Security Council meetings it has already been involved with in the past suggest no expansionist tendency. Besides this, their contributions have mainly amounted to observers and engineers. In Cambodia for instance, they contributed nearly a 598-man engineering battalion along with the much lower 75-man dispatch of police.

Germany has a booming economy today and its contributions to the Security Council made it a natural candidate. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the nation has prospered under a unified economy. It has asserted its military capability when it contributed troops to the up-graded peace-keeping mission in Cyprus in 1999. As with Japan, their constitution forbids participating in military exercises involving troops; nevertheless, it has demonstrated its commitment to the region by providing its troops for just such a purpose. Their constitution has recently been amended to accommodate their new role in the wake of their participation during the Bosnian and Somalian crises in 1995. Although there is some uneasiness in Eastern Europe about allowing the dormant giant of Europe to wake, most nations have centered on Germany as the most favored Permanent-member candidate.

India is by far the most controversial choice for permanent membership. But there is little doubt that it is a regional leader in an area that desperately needs it. The Indian economy has boomed in the last couple of years. Their skirmish with Pakistan in 1998 made them pay much more attention to their military and they increased their expenditures accordingly. At first, most of the former Big-Five opposed the Indian bid for membership. The United States in particular denounced their attempt. Still, once it was clear that Brazil did not have enough support for its bid, third world countries rallied behind the only true contender in India. Essentially, it was clear that in order to obtain the 2/3 majority needed to amend the Charter and to permit Germany and Japan to join, the developing world wanted a developing nation to obtain permanent member status. The Big-Five complied once China’s new government was recognized. It seemed that the new Chinese government would be much more willing to cooperate although many have interpreted this capitulation as a ploy to obtain recognition of the coup-instituted government. Regardless of any objections, India is going to be groomed if not catapulted into the midst of a much more volatile geo-political era.

After the Security Council in 1999 voted to approve the expansion of the membership to 19 members including three new permanent members (India, Germany, and Japan). The SC agreed to adhere by any method for choosing regional representatives that the General Assembly deemed appropriate. After all, securing approval for expansion and subsequent changes to the Charter required some politicking by the current Big-Five in 1999. The Special Committee recommended to the General Assembly in Resolution (A/55/205) stating the following concerning representation:

Permanent Members: United States, United Kingdom, Peoples Republic of China, Russia, France, Germany, India, Japan.

Non-permanent Membership: American Hemisphere-3, Africa/Middle East-3, South Asia/Eastern Europe-2, Rotating seat between Oceania/Southeast Asia-2 (Beginning with Oceania seat for one term, then alternating terms will begin), "Universal" seat (i.e., the random seat)-1.

In the former Security Council one veto was sufficient to "kill" a resolution; however, the new Security Council will require two such vetoes for the same effect. Even so, if a country vetoes a resolution, then it is not required to participate or in any way be affiliated with the resolution’s intent. If a Permanent Member of the Security Council is involved in the content of the resolution, then it may immediately move to have the International Court of Justice determine whether the resolution is permissible in light of the Charter and its provisions.

Furthermore, permanent members are required to assign adequate military and/or policing divisions to be ready for use as rapid deployment forces. There are to be joint exercises to be executed annually along with the development by regional players and development of universal protocols by 2000. To date, regional entities such as NATO, OAS, OAU, ASEAN, and the like have implemented these protocols and have taken the initiatives to secure an adequate and effective command structure. An example can be derived from NATO’s command structure which is simply being expanded to account for the different protocols of the UN when in need. There are to be United Nations liaisons which will assist already existing command structures in their operations.

Further development by the Military Staff Committee of regional protocols and the like will be in place by the 2001 inauguration of the new SC. Moreover, a yearly report is to be presented to the Military Staff Committee and the Security Council to allow for revisions of existing protocols as deemed appropriate. These rapid response forces will be primarily responsible for swift actions and containment of crises until the necessary reinforcements arrive and take charge of the operation or until regional alliances take charge. These troops can only be used as a result of a directive by the Security Council. They will be limited to a stay of no more than thirty calendar days, and such cannot be extended unless all Permanent Members concur and there are 11 affirmative votes from the Security Council.

The new members of the SC will not be limited to or by any previous resolutions enacted by said council. All previous countries barred from admittance to the council will be allowed equal opportunity for admittance. Also, elections for non-permanent seats have been eliminated. A lottery shall take place instead to ensure that all countries have an equal chance for representation of two years. Furthermore, a country can only hold a seat once during a single decade. The country shall be removed from the lottery until the next election cycle (i.e., the start of the following decade). Countries will then be given a ten day grace period to determine whether they choose to accept the appointment.

The Security Council is the most powerful body of the United Nations with its primary responsibility being the maintenance of international peace and security. Article 39 of the UN Charter empowers it to identify breaches of peace and security. Therefore the council can identify and act on global security threats. The council’s range of options to fulfill this is wide, ranging from condemnations and/or sanctions to deploying peacekeeping forces. Combined with the Secretariat, the Security Council forms an essential part of United Nations diplomacy. In the past, observer missions or peace-keeping forces have been used to contain problems; however, the addition of the rapid deployment forces will make these efforts more effective. Recently, in August of 1999, the Security Council used embargoes once again in an effort to curb Colombia’s decision to bar entrance to its canal.

* The Security Council may request ambassadors of foreign nations to inform them on the topic of discussion.

* Eleven affirmative votes and the concurrence of the eight permanent members are needed to pass substantive matters. Procedural matters require eleven affirmative votes.

* A nation may never change its vote.

The restructured Security Council in the year 2001 is something that will require everyone’s patience and creativity. Some may not agree with "changes" or the like; however, we ask that you take all events leading up to the conference and expanded upon in this guide at face value. It would be inconceivable to have everyone in accordance with our version of history. Some of you will note that membership on the council was manipulated to ensure that all of those who applied for a spot would receive a country that is enjoyable and challenging. It was always our intent to make this a fun committee and to do so we have made global politics in the future much more volatile. Although some of the historical accounts are somewhat radical, we felt that some spice could only add to the experience we are trying to provide.

In this guide, we have given everyone access to all country briefs for all members. You will note that the formats are generally the same. Any dissimilarities are due to the fact that we only included information that we deemed relevant for a particular country. These briefs should be looked at as just that. Any information that is not present on those briefs should be considered as status quo according to 1996 existing events and prior history. That is to say, the briefs present only deviations from what you should already gather to be a country’s history and foreign policy.

In this committee, we will continue to act as delegates in a council much like today’s council, but it will be imperative that everyone note the changes in rules and procedures, as well as what would be alterations in policy in order that we all enjoy the scenarios more. Some of you will note that there are some "weird" rules to the Security Council: 2001. But, believe it or not, these are actually to be found in some of the proposals on the web, in conference materials, and ironically enough, in actual recommendations presented at the 50th session by member-states (although I’ll admit these were less influential than others). At any rate, it will be interesting to see what effect this will have on debate and politics in the council. Hopefully, our experiment will prove to be lots of fun!

Total 14,691 km, Argentina 1,224 km, Bolivia 3,400 km, Colombia 1,643 km, French Guiana 673 km, Guyana 1,119 km, Paraguay 1,290 km, Peru 1,560 km, Suriname 597 km, Uruguay 985 km, Venezuela 2,200 km.

International Disputes:

Short section of the boundary with Paraguay, just west of Salto das Ste Quedas on the Rio Parana disputed on historical grounds. Serious trade disputes with Peru over the exploitation rights for the massive natural gas reserves discovered in mid 1998.

arable land: 7%

Permanent crops: 1%

meadows and pastures: 19%

Forest and woodland: 67%

other: 6%

Population: 240,737,489 (2000 est.)

Net migration rate: 0 immigrants/1,000 habitants

Religion: Roman Catholic 70%

Labor force: 80 million

Legal System: Based on Roman codes, has not accepted compulsory ICJ jurisdiction

vice-president: Rodolfo Valdivia

Legislative Branch: Senado Federal - PMDB 21%, PFL 18%, PDT 7%, PSDB 12%, PPR 10%, PTB 6%, PT 10% other 16%

Judicial Branch: Supreme Tribunal Federal

Three hours later, Itamar Franco, who served as Vice President under Collor, as sworn in as President to serve the remaining two years of Collor's five-year term. Collor's impeachment by the House of Deputies, his trial by the Senate, and his resignation marked a new chapter in the political history of Brazil. Later, President Cardoso was elected into office, instituting the broad sweeping ‘Plano Real’ aiming to curb inflation and return the economy to health.

In a draconian measure its initial stage consisted of the approval of tax rises and a social-emergency fund of $ 16 billion, with the aim of achieving a balanced budget, and allowing a change in the monetary system, with the introduction of the new currency - the "Real". Due to strong measures taken in the fiscal and monetary areas, resulting in a significant reduction of the public deficit, and the transition to the new currency, inflation fell from more than 45% a month up until June to 6% in July and an estimated 2.8% in August 1995.

By 1996, the positive effects of the Plano Real finally bore fruit. The economy began to grow at rates of over 6-7% and inflation remained stable at a bearable 8% and the massive foreign debt of $122 billion was brought under control by a series of creative restructuring. A large part of the dollar denominated, t-bill secured Brandy Bonds were swapped for long term variable interest rate Global bonds with no attached collateral - liberating the large amounts of dollar reserves held previously as collateral. Gradually, as investor confidence increased, both the interest and maturity spreads of Brazilian sovereign debt fell to record lows; and with the government registering a budget surplus, large amounts of fresh capital was now available to private investors.

A central plank of economic relations with the rest of the world have been the closer ties between Brazil and its neighbors in South America. To the south, this has been brought about by the setting up the common market of the south - Mercosur. As from the 1st of January 1995, when the customs union between Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay came into force. Goods produced in any of the four countries were finally given true free access to the markets of the others. Everything appeared to go on track until the economic troubles of Brazil’s southern partner - Argentina - increased. After which, a serious change began to appear in the structure of Mercosur. Throughout the late 1990’s, the market opportunities for Brazilian investors to buy undervalued Argentine assets increased to un-imaginable levels. Quickly Brazilian investors capitalized on their opportunity window - aggressively buying leading Argentine industrial conglomerates in sector after sector. Giving the Brazilians ownership of a large part of Argentine industry and effectively cementing the economic and commercial ties of the two nations.

At the same time, economic trade with Chile and the rest of the MERCOSUR block flourished, helping to bring a new era of economic stability both to Brazil and the rest of the Southern Cone countries. By early 1997 plans were established for a new wave of privatization, including the Compania do Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), the crown jewel of the Brazilian Economy, ELECTROBRAS, the national electricity grid, PETROBRAS, the massive national petroleum monopoly and large amounts of capital were injected into the state banking sector - finally brining the financial sector to health.

This new found prosperity also led to a new vision towards the Brazilian Rain forest. In 1996, the POLAMAZONIA program, under which incentives were provided for development of industrial and mining poles in the Amazon region, was suspended. Later, in 1997, the "Nossa Natureza" program established a National Environment Fund with representatives of non-governmental organizations on its board. A Secretariat for the Environment under the President and a Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, acting as its executive arm, were created a year after in 1998. A National Environment Program was set up in the same year, and the Amazonian states created their own environmental secretariats. An important landmark was the adoption, in August 1998, of a political statement by the Governors of the Amazonian states endorsing the implementation of a sustainable development strategy for the region and welcoming international cooperation to that end. Finally new high-yield plantations were established under the supervision of the agricultural department of the Plano Real. All of which are on the way to turn Brazil into a world class producer of coffee, tropical fruit, wood pulp, paper and maize. Large Settlements are now under consideration, hoping to further exploit the pervious unproductive land. In conjunction, large natural gas deposits were discovered in southern and western Brazil, enough to provide for the energy need of not just Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, but Northern Chile and Argentina. Large investments were made by PETROBRAS in conjunction with the Argentine YPF, Trans-Canada Pipelines and the Texan ENRON to build a gas grid crossing the Andes and providing cheap ecological power to most of the MERCOSUR bloc - further developing the Brazilian hold on the group.

Today, as 2002 approaches, the Brazilian and allied economies appears to have finally left behind the legacy of the 80’s and the debt crisis. Growth projections are predicting a $1,200 billion GPD growing at 8.1%, 6% inflation, exports growth of 18% and a stable exchange rate of .97 Reales per dollar.

However, these impressive results bear the heavy mark of President Cardoso. Back in the mid 1990’s, as the Brazilian economy finally finished its painful readjustment process, President Cardoso’s popularity with congress and the states began to increase from his record lows. He went on a popularity campaign, rising support for the poor for his political reforms and effectively convincing congress of the need to stop hindering reform. As for relations with the individual States, (which in Brazil are near baronies), he acquired a powerful ally when he re-capitalized the state bank of Sao Paulo (Bandesco) which had previously collected large losses due to corruption and uneconomic investments. The following year, he arranged to donate the proceeds of the privatization of ELECTROBRAS to the state of Rio de Janeiro, thereby cementing his position as president and removing virtually all serious opposition to reform.

Then in late 1997 he secured the possibility of reelection from congress and in 1998 he went on to sweep the elections. With his powers extended, he went on to lead Brazil into becoming the pillar of economic reform and trade in Latin America. Free Trade Agreements were established with virtually all Latin nations, and Brazil went on to eclipse many European and North American markets as the prime origins and destinations of Latin Trade. With trade inter-relationships so deep, Cardoso set the ground work for the Latin American Co-Prosperity agreement, which should effectively tie most of the Continent save Mexico under Brazil’s wing in a broad free trade zone and which plans to begin work on the lines of a Latin American Union similar to the further developed European Union - however, that is still into the future.

Today, as the new millennium approaches, Brazil is ruled by an effective reformist president which has both effective control at home as well as solid connections with its neighbors. However, the key question is what future role will Brazil play in the world with its new found economic and political weight? What direction will reforms take? Is the old cycle of dependency in Latin America fully broken? Finally, we must not forget that the world is already divided - how will Brazil carve out its own place in the ranks of World Powers?

During the political struggle to obtain permanent membership in the Security Council, Brazil pointed to the marked improvements in its economic policies, its ability to help bolster the region, and its "natural role as the leader of Latin America." Nevertheless, the United States, Mexico, and Canada are not very pleased with the prospects of competing markets in Latin America. Quoting President Powell: "although NAFTA is proving itself to the continent to be a hard and difficult arrangement, too many countries in this hemisphere are putting in jeopardy the future of a truly unified economic front. We must cooperate more than compete in our own markets. " Granted, the United States had proposed that Brazil join their fee trade arrangement but Brazil wished to emerge as an economic powerhouse in its own right No doubt, this bore relevance to the vote for Permanent Membership when the United States chose to vote against their effort. Today, Brazilians remain annoyed by the hurdles that Americans seem to place upon their growth.

Finally, in Brazil, the growth in of the economy has not necessarily translated into a recovering peasantry. In the outskirts of certain border states, Brazilians continue to riot and collude with covert Venezuelan activists to undermine local governments. Brazil has made a point to end these riots and provide more education to those in the areas. As Brazil’s military continues to expand (along with expanded participation in peace-keeping operations), issues of human rights have been brought up to criticize the government. Nevertheless, Brazil has proven to be a major contributor to peace in the region. During the barring of passage for ships along the Colombian canal, Brazilian ships participated in securing the opening along with a US Frigate. Brazil is still trying to drum up support for a bid at permanent membership. Its activities presently suggest that its candidacy will be viewed positively. President Cardoso has made it clear that "the Western Hemisphere will not sit back and permit merely one Permanent Member to represent its interests. It requires and expects more courtesy and respect than what has been shown."

TOTAL 7,408 km, Brazil 1,643 km, Ecuador 590 km, Panama 225 km, Peru 2,900 km, Venezuela 2,050 km

Maritime boundary dispute with Venezuela in the Gulf of Venezuela; territorial dispute with Nicaragua over

Archipelago de San Andres y Proviedencia and Quita Sueno Bank

arable land: 4%

Permanent Crop: 2%

Meadows and Pastures: 29%

Forest and Woodland: 49%

other: 16%

population: 42,200,251

Net migration rate: -0.17 migrants/1,000 population

Ethnic divisions: mestizo 58%, White 20%, mulatto 14%, Black 4%, Indian 2%

Religion: Roman Catholic 95%

Labor Force: 18 million

Based on Spanish law; a criminal code modeled after US procedures was enacted in 92-93; judicial review of executive and legislative acts; accept compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations

Vice-President: Timoteo Barajas

Senate: 102 total, 59 Liberal Party, 29 Conservative Party, 14 others

House of Representatives: 161 total Liberal Party 89, Conservative Party 53 Others 17

In the context of the Lost Decade and up to the mid 90’s, Colombia's economic performance was outstanding. Most countries in the region had negative growth in gross national product. For instance, Argentina and Venezuela had over 20 percent negative growth over the period. Colombia's economy, however, grew by almost 14 percent and, along with Chile and Brazil, it was among the leading countries in economic growth in Latin America. According to the statistics that the Government collects for the seven largest cities in Colombia, between 1995 and 2000, the country’s urban unemployment rate ranged from a high of 14.7% in the second quarter of 1995 to a low of 6.0% in the third quarter of 2000, while urban employment increased at an average annual rate of 2,7% over the period 1995-2000.

The quality of life improved in recent years in Colombia. According to the 2000 population census, the number of poor people in Colombia fell from 13.7 million in 1995, a figure which was measured by using the Basic Unsatisfied Needs (BUN) parameter, to 9.8 million by 2000.

Many Colombians still live in poverty though, and 18% of the population have basic needs which are not yet satisfied. The government has however made a major attempt to reduce the number of poor people in Colombia through an aggressive program in social areas such as health, education, housing and infrastructure and the result show. Even so, the traditional cartels are still able to draw from a relatively poor population that

Access to education also improved in recent years, and Colombia now has one of the best education systems in Latin America. The average number of years schooling is 10. Eight million children and students are enrolled in the three different levels of education in the country : primary, secondary,and further education. There are 577,000 university graduates in Colombia. Illiteracy fell from 43% in 1950 to 4.7% in 1999. In that same period, life expectancy in Colombia rose from 64 years at the end of 1985 to 75 today.

However, regarding the peace process, one of the former President Samper's top priorities was to achieve peace throughout out the country. The previous two governments had implemented various measures to address the violence associated with guerrilla groups, obtaining the integration of four groups into the political process ; since 1989, the M-19, Ejército Popular de Liberación (EPL), Partido Revolucionario de los Trabajadores (PRT) and a dissident faction of the ELN have laid down their arms and entered political life. However the remaining groups: the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). Proved to be quite another matter.

In 1991, Colombia hosted a five-nation summit in Cartagena where an agreement was reached to increase cooperation to crackdown on drug dealing. Agreements on judicial cooperation, and the signing of trade agreements between the Andean region and the United States were also concluded on this occasion. The next summit was held in San Antonio, (Texas United States), in February 1992.

At the Cartagena Summit, held in 1994, the leaders of the Latin American continent agreed to continue the efforts to eradicate the drug trade and to intensify the process of economic and commercial integration. At the same time, progress was also made on various initiatives with the governments of different European countries.

However, in 1996 Colombia’s problems with the drug problem continued to play a mayor role in the nations problems. The US continued to pressure President Samper after the summit, however, against the massive demand for drugs in the US there was little that the national government could do to stem the massive demand for drugs in the US. Following the round of US pressures in 1996, President Samper decided to act forcefully and issued a major war on the drug plantations.

The army was sent out into the fields, surgical air strikes were executed against the Drug barons and large properties were confiscated. However, on one hand, the drug barons responded with a new wave of terror. Metros and airplanes were destroyed, killing hundreds of Colombians. On the other side, farmers tired of being told to stop growing coca leaves on one hand but not being able on the other hand to export many legal staple fruit produce due to EC and US Department of Agriculture lobbying for local producers decided to act. A guerrilla war soon erupted which left many dead and much of the petroleum pipe line grid of ECOPETROL (the national petroleum monopoly) destroyed.

At the same time, corruption charges were pressed against Samper when it was found that he had received contributions for his presidential campaign. A political coup soon followed when Vice president Humberto de la Calle ousted President Samper and took effective control. Both houses of congress approved of the measure as soon after, and Calle was sworn in as president on June 4 1997. Popular support for the new president was not necessarily high, but the people were hopeful and wishing for the best.

To deal with the problem with the drug trade, a far reaching set of measures were prepared. First of all, a new round of amnesty was provided to the drug baron in exchange for and end to the wave of terror which had left deep marks on the country. The barons would stop their attacks, and the government pledged to return their productive assets that had been confiscated as well as forgiving them for their previous actions. This measure infuriated a good part of the population - but it was a necessary one to provide economic stability.

The barons were invited to invest in series of venture capital projects as well as in the creation of an industrial park on the outskirts of Cartagena. With this measure, large amounts of money that had been held offshore in Swiss accounts entered the country. The prime interest rate fell by 1500 basis points as confidence in the new government increased. The industrial park in Cartagena appears to be a success and numerous multinationals have already shifted production and are on their way to install first world industrial plants.

As for the problem with agriculture, Calles instituted a minimum wage and a rural social security net in the highlands. Hospitals and school are being constructed, thousands of university students have been sent to the highlands to teach the people how to read and write and potable water and telephone services are on their way. Already signs of improvement have appeared. No longer are guerrillas destroying the petroleum and electricity grids, nutrition levels have been improving as well as health and education levels. Popular sentiment is running high and it appears as in the nation finally resolved some of its basic conflicts.

On a Macro economic level, growth has continued at its average 6% level, both inflation as well as the exchange rates appear stable, interest rates are approaching an all time low as liberalization reforms have taken root and FDI is at an all time high due to the large capital inflows coming in to sustaining the Cartagena Industrial Park complex.

However, one world player in which was not too happy with Colombia’s reforms has been the states. It issued numerous directives and complaints - most of which were politely ignored. Under heavy pressure from congress, Clinton redoubled the a covert war on narcotics. However, this time the Colombian Government responded by telling the hundreds of DEA ‘Cultural Attaches’ that were there in violation of international law. And as a Geopolitical master move and a balance to US influence, Calles brought his country into the protection of Brazil - free trade treaties were signed, and cultural and educational exchanges were developed and both governments viewed each other as allies and true friends.

Nevertheless, the United States asked the Colombian government to beef up its efforts to curtail drug shipments or face economic sanctions. Believing this to be a rash measure, Colombians sealed off their canal from usage from everyone to draw attention to this debate. Appealing to Brazil for increased support to maintain this until American concessions were made, they found that they stood alone. After all, Brazil used the canal as much as the states and could not support this initiative. Also, it was trying to show the international community that it could be a forerunner for membership as a permanent member of the Security Council.

Adding to the difficulties that Colombia faced, Brazil sent its own frigate to assist the Americans in securing free passage. Brazil has since contended that this was a gesture of good will to bring to light the importance of Colombian acquiescence in the matter. Even so, President Clinton was facing increasing pressure at home to solve the drug issue. It was obvious that further crises such as this could spell trouble for the Colombian government.

True, there are large distortions to the economy due to the inflow of laundered money, however, there have been offset by the degree of stability and rule of law that has prevailed since the uprisings in the mid part of the past decade. When will the serious drug production problem end? Only when the standard of living increases and US demand subdues - however, until then, the way Colombia decides to deal with it and the was way Colombia deals with its neighbors can still be changed.

Land boundaries: 22,113.34 km, Afghanistan 76 km, Bhutan 470 km, Burma 2,185 km, India 3,380 km, Kazakhstan 1,533, Korea 1,416 km, Kyrgystan 858 km, Laos 423 km, Macau 0.34 km, Mongolia 4,673 km, Nepal 1,236 km, Pakistan 523 km, Russia (NE) 3,605 km, Russia (NW) 40 km, Tajikistan 414 km, Vietnam 1,281 km.

Coastline: 14,530 km

Area: 9.608 million sq km. Slightly larger than the United States.

Retains 200 NM exclusive economic zone and 12 NM territorial sea rights.

International Disputes and Claims: The People’s Republic of China(China) has been long involved in disputes over boundaries with India, as well as sections with Russia and Tajikistan. China is also involved in a complex dispute over the Spratly Islands with Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei, and Vietnam. Both China, ROC, and Vietnam claim the Paracel Islands, but since ROC’s declaration of independence China has laid siege upon the islands with martial law imposed.

NATURAL RESOURCES:

Land:

arable land: 13%

permanent crops: 2%

meadows and pastures: 42%

forest and woodland: 12%

other: 31%

People:

Population: 1,267,001,976 (2000 census)

Population growth rate: 1.3%

Language: Mandarin Chinese(official) plus various regional dialects.

Literacy: 84%

Work force: 602.7 million

Legal System: Constitutional Dictatorship with court system under military tribunal. Prior to 1998, a complex amalgam of custom and statue, largely criminal law.

General Chi TSE(since February 18^th, 1998)

Type: Military Dictatorship

Capital: Beijing

Branches of government: Executive, Legislative, Judicial.

Administrative divisions: 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, 3 municipalities.

Major political parties: Chinese Communist Party (CCP). All miscellaneous parties previously under CCP control have been disbanded.

The People’s Republic of China(China) was conceived on October 1, 1949 after overthrowing the existing Republic government on the mainland. In the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué signed during President Nixon’s historic trip to China, the United States adopted a "one-China policy," which maintained that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of China. Following the Communiqué, in 1979 the United States formally established relations with China and transferred diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Fairly lax in its policies toward environmental and human rights, China has been under constant global pressure to step up its policies toward levels recommended by leading scholars in civil and environmental rights. Professor of Political Science Daniel Deudney of the University of Pennsylvania wrote a series of papers stating "Communist China has been abusing human, animal, and environmental rights since its inception. Only when they want something do they pursue the conscious course of action."

After numerous violations with trade and human rights codes resulting in deteriorating relations with the United States, in February 1997 the US led an UN embargo on China. China, with 18% imports and 37% exports of GDP to the United States, and an overall 63% imports and 74% exports between Taiwan, Japan, and the EEC represented countries, did not respond favorably to the UN until it became apparent that, as stated by Robert Tinsman, Chairman of Morrison Knudsen, a major US mining and construction conglomerate, "although they can survive on their own, they can not advance on their own. The technologies toward progression are just not there."

After six months without trade or virtual economic contact with the rest of the world, China fell to international demands. UN and US inspectors were sent on the first of many routine inspections to make sure that trade, copyright, and human rights were all in accordance with ICJ regulations. With a crackdown in the third quarter on the audio and video piracy as well as a shutdown of 17 major industrial plants due to pollution levels, the embargo was finally lifted on a trial basis in August 1997. China, however, did not concede silently. The US, France, and Japan responded by providing scholars and technologies to adapt the existing machinery to current standards and to teach the Chinese industrialists more efficient means for production. Total cost incurred to the three countries by December 1997: $652 million.

In the wake of capitalism in China, over 87% of the major factories were still run by the government, central or provincial. Although all State facilities were supposedly under the direction of Beijing, many of the regional factories were run by local political and military figures. These factories included plants which produce arms, automobiles, and other military equipment as well as pirated audio and video labels from North America and the European continent. It was estimated in November 1998 that 37% of all military equipment produced from China were sold illegally to third parties including the middle east, southeast Asia, North America, South America, as well as eastern Europe. The sale of these arms produced an estimated $400 million in 1997 alone, of which almost all went directly to the pockets of the generals. As the treasuries of the provinces were increasing exponentially by the day, the coffers in Beijing remained bare. Quoted by an anonymous army intelligence officer "[illegal trade] was comparable to robbing the mute to give to the blind. All of the factories were run by the local officiates. All of the buyers were so desperate for weapons that they would pay millions for junk." This influx of cash to the provinces in the absence of central leadership became one of the footholds of which Beijing was hung in November 1997.

Toward the end of the century, it was apparent that Deng would die and leave an appointed successor. The question on China then was, who would be the successor? It rumored that the appointee would be Li Peng but Qian Qichen, Premier of China and an advocate of the PLA was in strong popularity with the military. Government, by 1997, was controlled by the politicians. However, only the military had the power to impose the will of the government. Until the death of Deng, the two factors worked complacently. Upon the death of Deng Xiao Ping in late 1997, China fell into a bitter power struggle between the military and the central government in Beijing. Li Peng, as expected, was named as the next chairman of the CCP. Knowing that there were plots to overthrow his position, he charged Qian and five generals in the PLA with "counter-revolutionary" actions and to be put to death. Qian, however, with the support of loyal PLA military responded with a coup. After watching two out of the three generals switch sides to the opposition, Li realized that Beijing would fall, possibly with him in the middle. In the cloak of night, he and four members of his immediate cabinet fled to Iraq in fear of death by Qian. Meanwhile in Beijing, masses of officials which sided with Li were murdered including major party leaders such as Jiang Zemin. In the middle of the "confusion" in Beijing, Qian himself was killed, leaving no one to take charge but a mass of hungry wolves tearing away at a dying dragon. By August 1998, a skeleton confederacy was formed but each province would be able to rule somewhat independent of each other. However, just as bullies on a playground, the stronger provinces began overrunning territorial borders and raiding factories, causing some civil strife. In the internal confusion of China which still lingers today, Taiwan declared its independence as the Republic of China in October of 1999. Even so, long time General Tse of the PLA has been able to secure an iron hand constitutional dictatorship of the confederate nation. He continues to centralize control month by month.

The international community saw the confusion in China as an incredible threat to security in the region. India, Japan, the United States, Taiwan, and most other nations were awestruck by the volatile situation. Li Peng sought exile in Iraq where he was petitioning for recognition of this government in exile. Nevertheless, the world saw this as an opportunity to pressure either the military coup government or the government in exile for concessions on the issue of Taiwan’s independence (recently declared as a result of internal confusion). General Tse on the other hand, was willing to do almost anything to secure the permanent seat of the council and to establish himself as an internationally recognized ruler of the People’s Republic of China. Thus it was that Taiwan’s seemingly insurmountable obstacles toward independence were overcome by way of "peaceful politics." Of course, at the United Nations, the United States and the United Kingdom praised the efforts of this new government to end socialism gradually, to better human rights conditions, and to broaden freedom of speech. Nevertheless, what once seemed to be a new China ready to become involved in the international community as a reformed state was beset with continuing internal discord. It’s population clamored for decreased militarization on the provinces. General Tse has yet to lose the military uniform as promised. Nevertheless, he has still promised to open up the government to more participants. But he has now committed to merely reform socialism, not elevate principles of democracy. Indeed, the gamble was for naught. US and UK recognition led the way to General’s Tse’s power but he was not the visionary leader that many hoped would end communism. Finally, his conciliatory nature has lessened since the world granted him legitimate power. Riots and protests in Hong Kong have re-emerged and the incidents along the Russian border are cause for concern. The only benefits that have come about are a continuing commercial agreements between Chian and Taiwan, regardless of the military tension each has for each other, simply due to necessity. Each of these countries relies on each other for much of their trade and at least this holds out some positive role for the future. But will it be enough? Only time will tell.

The transfer of the government of Hong Kong in 1997 from the United Kingdom to China originally resulted in an initial influx of capital. However, after one year under the existing capitalistic local government, Beijing made efforts to reform the municipality. This angered the regional governors, losing them a cash flow of $15 million per month. While under central control, there was a decrease in revenue of 14% first quarter, and another decrease of 37% third quarter. Only after immense pressure from senior advisors and the Premier did Beijing back down and return administration of Hong Kong to the provincial level. Quoting President Powell of the United States, "certain powers are due to the federal government. All those left are due to the states. We can only guide them, but they know their people, their know their progress; only they know how to excel in whatever it is they do." Analysts from Wharton, Sloan, and Kellogg do not see Hong Kong rebounding until 2005 from its loss of 1998.

The current government in China remains at a struggle; in response to the more powerful provinces, the smaller provinces have banded together. The death toll since 1997 has been estimated at 3.6 million people, but WHO representatives estimate that the actual number of fatalities could be as much as double. It has been clear that without outside intervention, China will remain in a death struggle for power similar to imperialistic days centuries before. General Tse has been able to do little to curb this trend.

Another problem for Chinese officials has been the resurgence of the Tibetan struggle for independence. In the wake of Chinese provincial uprisings, the Tibetan Dalai Lama has been working according to Chinese officials: "with the CIA of the United States to undermine our efforts as we try to keep China together. It is ludicrous to expect that we will acquiesce to the loss of yet another province as a result of this rebellion." Tibetan monks have maintained close contacts with Indian officials in New Delhi and the Tibetan government in exile for months trying to orchestrate some victories. Even so, by 1999, the Tibetans had been crushed once again. Sino-Indian relation have taken an incredible turn for the worse when, after India was accepted as a permanent member of the Security Council, it announced plans to continue to help the Dalai Lama for as long as necessary until the rightful leader of Tibet is re-installed. Obviously , Chinese officials have taken to dangerous rhetoric in response. Surely, Indian forces are attack-ready following the series of skirmishes along the Pakistani border and an Indian-Tibetan attack could prove successful against the weakened China.

Economics:

Beginning in late 1978 the Chinese leadership has been trying to move the economy from the sluggish Soviet-style centrally planned economy to a more productive and flexible economy with market elements, but still within the framework of monolithic Communist control. To this end the authorities have increased local jurisdiction on the maintenance of factories and plants, permitting a wide variety of small-scale enterprise in services and light manufacturing. The result has been a strong surge in production, particularly in the area of agriculture due to technological advances. Industry has also posted major gains, especially in areas near coastlines such as Guangzhou and Hong Kong. Aggregate output has tripled since 1978. However, with this increase in overall production, the influx of money has resulted in corruption. After the steady influx of money, Beijing slowly re-seized control of the local factories, disregarding the provincial political and military officials. However, local leaders did not accept this shift of money and in 1997, leaders of Guangzhou and Shanghai revolted against Beijing by taking control of the factories by force of the military.

The revolt, never entirely crushed by the central government went on to haunt Beijing when Deng died. The struggle for power between Li Peng and Qian Qichen was a short one; Qian’s military and provincial support led to Li’s exile. Qian, however, died in the mass murder of 1997 before his succession as the Chairman of the CCP.

Since the attack on Taiwan, GNP has increased slightly, but GDP has decreased.

Defense:

Branches: People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which includes the Ground Forces, Navy (inclusive of Marines and Naval Aviation), Air Force, Second Artillery Corps (the strategic missile force), People’s Armed Police (internal security troops, nominally subordinate to the Ministry of Public Security).

Manpower availability: males age 15-49 409,839,232; males fit for military service 206,532,674.

Defense expenditures: defense budget-83.76 billion yuan.

29 km, US Naval base at Guantanamo Bay

International Disputes and Claims:

US Naval base at Guantanamo Bay is leased to US and only mutual agreement or US abandonment of the area can terminate the lease. Recent bombings by anonymous terrorist of the base in 1998 have brought the presence of the USS Georgia to the base. These events made the prospect of mutual agreement to terminate the lease a mere fantasy. Cuba then petitioned the ICJ for assistance n termination of the lease. The ICJ found in favor of Cuba and instructed the United States to abandon Guantanamo Bay on November 1, 2001.

Arable land: 23%

Permanent Crop: 6%

Meadows and Pastures: 23%

Forest and Woodland: 17%

Other: 31%

Population: 17,937,635 (2000 estimate)

Net migration rate: -1.55 migrants/1,000 people

Ethnic divisions: (according to 1998 census):

mulatto 51%, white 37%, black 11%, Chinese 1%

Religions: Roman Catholic 85%

Labor Force: 6,620,800

Legal System: Based on Spanish and American law, with large elements of Communist legal theory; does accept compulsory ICJ jurisdiction

Chief of state and head of government:

Legislative branch: National Assembly of the People: 589, elected directly from the slates approved by the special candidacy commissions,

Judicial Branch: People’s Supreme Court

As the last cutting and milling of sugar cane winds up in the eastern provinces of Ciego de Avila and Camaguey, Cuba is on its way to a successful completion of the 2000-2001 harvest. A solid 30 million metric tons of sugar were harvested--36 percent more than last year's yield of 19.1 million

tons.

Although still far short of the 1992-93 harvest of 4.4 million tons, this year's gain is another sign of Cuba's economic recovery from the most difficult years of the "Special Period," 1993 and 1994. Those years the harvest fell drastically because there were almost no fertilizers, herbicides, fuel or spare parts for machinery. Sugar is still the number-one industry there. It brings in half of all the country's export earnings. However, today Cuba is the world's largest sugar producer. Over 900,000 workers plant, cut, process and transport sugar, or develop technology related to the industry. One hundred fifty-six sugar mills dot the island. Sugar, like the nation, had to be revived for the country's recovery. This saying became popular last year: "Until the sugar harvest recovers, the Special Period is not over."

Before the collapse of trade with the Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba was able to finance preparations for each harvest with almost $900 million to assure a strong outcome in sugar production. The socialist camp's demise dealt a big blow. In 1994-95, Cuba's support for sugar production shrank to only $130 million. Last year, a strategic push was made to revitalize the industry and reverse the decline in production. Undertaken a year in advance by the Ministry of Sugar and the government, the push included bigger mobilizations of workers and volunteers, securing foreign credits to obtain resources, and earlier and more massive planting.

Cuba obtained foreign credits of $135 million from 10 foreign banks and corporations to purchase fertilizers and herbicides. The greatest factor for this year's success, however, lies in the mass mobilization of sugar-cane cutters and volunteers, and the Cuban people's revolutionary response for the nationwide effort. The work force became more stable. For the first time in the recent period, there was a net gain of sugar workers who remained in the countryside.

A renewed sense of optimism permeates Cuban society as the economy strengthens. No better symbolism than the traditional sugar harvest could have represented it. The difficulties are by no means over. Cuba today has still a long road to travel before it can reach The Revolutions dreams of equality and freedom. The blockade is still tightly in place. Go back to history and recall that Woodrow Wilson was an idealist in his professorial capacities and academic studies, but a staunch believer in a US sphere of influence to keep all European interests out of the Americas.

The permutations of the Monroe Doctrine of the United States giving them a protectorate sphere of influence over the Western Hemisphere has changed over the decades; however, in late 1995 the sad history of the Americas was repeated. After the Cuban government downed an insurrectionist Cuban-American plane which had violated their legitimate airspace, the US passed the Helms-Burton act, which among other things, gave US citizens the ‘right’ to file lawsuits against foreign corporations which ‘traffic in Cuban property rightfully owned by US citizens’. Later in 1996, the Canadian mining firm Sherritt International Ltd. and Grupo Domos of Mexico were singled out by the law and their owners were denied US rights of entry as a warning to other multinationals. However, the world in which Clinton lives is not the world of Wilson and Teddy Roosevelt. Following the end of the US election cycle and the reelection of President Clinton, the Cuban government initiated a second wave of privatization aimed at providing the state with fresh revenues of hard currency and high-tech investments.

Thanks to the counter legislation passed by the EU, Canada and Mexico, foreign multinationals, in defiance of the Helms-Burton act, participated. The Cienfuegos high-tech industrial park was set up to take advantage of cheap labor, and an impressive list of companies responded. Total FDI summed to well over $8 billion over 1996-1998, due to heavy investments by Olivetti and STET from Italy, Bull, Thomson, France Telecom and Elf-Aquantine from France, TransCanada Pipelines, Bombardier and Aluminum Corporation of Canada (Alcan) from Canada, Grupo Alfa, Grupo Peñoles, Grupo Hylsa, Grupo Desc and CEMEX from Mexico, ABB from Switzerland and Seimens, Mannesman, BASF, Deutche Telecom and Bayer from Germany. Numerous other corporations have stated their interest in acquiring property including Asian conglomerates such as the Salim Group of Indonesia, Mitsui and Mitsubishi from Japan, Daewoo, LG and Hyundai from Korea, Formosa Plastics from Taiwan and China.

Castro, which has by now lived through virtually all stages of the Cold war and post-cold war has continued to play the game of Geopolitics skillfully. By attracting foreign corporations, he effectively re-tied his island nation with the rest of the world - at the cost of selling a large part of the islands assets at bargain prices. However, trade has in fact bloomed, reaching the $10 billion mark last June.

Not everything has gone smoothly for the island. Relations with the United States are at a record low. In 1998, an unidentified group of terrorists tried to blow up the USS Perry in an incident too uncomfortably similar to that explosion which unleashed a wave of American expansionism a century ago. As could be expected, the destruction of a US vessel drew the ire of the US government, which argued that the attack was a Communist plot to expel the US from the island. Castro, expecting the terrorist act to be an attempt by the Miami radicalism Cubans to provoke a strong US reaction and a possible second Bay of Pigs, reacted by taking a hard line position. The Cuban armed forces were placed in a state of complete readiness.

For a while, Americans were in a state of panic along the Southern States. A country unaccustomed to any prospect for was near its own territory. With recent investments in the region by many European countries, the United States could not merely respond with unmitigated force. The table had turned on the US whose 1996 incident involving the American based plane crossing into a gray international air-space zone was similarly repeated by the downing of a military plane crossing obvious air-space.

This in turn pushed Clinton into sending the aircraft carrier USS Georgia into Guantanamo Bay. As with the Cuban Missile crisis, tensions were running high, and the armed forces of both sides were prepared to give up their lives to defend their honor. However, it was then when, to add injury, an F-18 pilot accidentally crossed into Cuban airspace. Who knows if this was indeed a pilot error? Regardless, the Cuban military - a veterans force of numerous African wars and still a formidable force - responded with a surface to air missile attack which downed the unsuspecting pilot. Castro’s government, through the voice of their UN representative stated that a clear violation of international law had taken place and that the tyranny of the United States was soon to descend upon them. Ironically enough, the plea was taken seriously as it seemed that the United States was ready to act without sound proof that the USS Perry had been destroyed by Cuban nationals. On the eve of the USS Georgia’s departure, the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun received letters indicating that the disaster was really due to Islamic terrorist attacks that at that time were sweeping the nation. However, the American public clamored for justice.

With Congressional elections looming close overhead, American congressmen followed in suit with a plea to the President that the US should respond with due force. Upon seeing all of this, the now elderly Castro was appalled and called for a state of emergency whereby curfews and forced labor would be installed in the event of an attack. With a much more senile Castro at the helm, it is curious how he would react in the future.

With war looming over the Americas, European nations intervened to cool relations between both rivals - partly to protect their investments in Cuba and partly to prevent an escalation into what would have been a pointless war. As could be expected, neither Castro nor Clinton actually wanted war and both subdued.

The issue was then taken to the International Court of Justice, where the issues of the escalation and of termination of the lease of Guantanamo to the US were set to be discussed. The ICJ found in favor of Cuba on both accounts and declared that the destruction of the USS Perry was indeed the act of an unknown group of terrorists and it instructed the United States to abandon Guantanamo Bay by November 1, 2001.

This was a heavy blow to the US, and today, tensions are still quite high, there is now a large air contingent in Guantanamo which could lead to a repetition of the F-18 error, the US still has to abandon Guantanamo and finally the European intervention brought and end to decades of European non-intervention in South America.. Indeed, Cuba proved that it still continues to exert impressive geopolitical clout for its meager size.

Today its economy growing at a reasonable rate and it is no longer on the verge of bankruptcy. In what direction will Castro now lead his besieged nation? Even more interestingly though, what role will the multinationals in Cuba now play in world affairs? Regardless, today the Cuban workers and their leader have shown that time and time again, that they can and will do whatever is necessary to guarantee their socialist revolution.

In the last couple few years, Cuba, the last true bastion of communism, has defied the trend of bankrupt socialism. It has been able to pull ahead of its economic turmoil. Having increased the standard of living, although only a minor bit, Castro has been able to re-instill hope to Cubans. He recently stated:

" It takes time for a revolution to succeed. I have said this many times. But recent years have proven that I will leave to you a better destiny when I depart. I am proud to have lived to witness the beginning of the end for our struggle on the island. Now we are called upon to face the challenges that foreign enemies will put forth to try to take away the socialist success we have proven is possible. They are afraid of a resurgence of socialism because given time, we proletariats are due to triumph!"

Cuban-American relations are at one of the lowest ebbs since the Bay of Pigs invasion. With the Nov. 1 deadline for abandoning Guantanamo Bay passed, the next few month will remain quite dangerous.

Land Boundaries: 2,689 km, Gaza Strip 11 km, Israel 255 km, Libya 1,150 km, Sudan 1,273 km.

International Disputes and Claims: Administrative boundary with Sudan does not coincide with international boundary creating the "Hala’ib Triangle," a barren area of 20,580 sq. km, tensions over this disputed area began to escalate in 1992 and remain high.

arable land: 3%

permanent crops: 2%

meadows and pastures: 0%

forest and woodland: 0%

other: 95%

population: 69,359,623 (2000 Census)

Net migration rate: -2.1 migrant(s)/1,000 population (1999 est.)

Ethnic Divisions: Eastern Hamitic stock (Egyptians, Bedouins, and Berbers) 99%, Greek, Nubian, Armenian, other European (primarily Italian and French) 1%.

Religions: Muslim (mostly Sunni) 95%, Coptic Christian and other 5% (official estimate)

Languages: Arabic (official), English and French widely understood by educated classes.

Literacy: age 15 and over that can read and write. total population: 43% (1999 est.)

male: 64%

female: 33%

Labor Force: 19 million (2000 est.)

note: Shortage of skilled labor: 3,000,000 Egyptians work abroad, mostly in Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf Arab States.

Legal System: Based on English common law, Islamic law and Napoleonic codes; judicial review by Supreme court and Council of State (oversees validity of administrative decisions); accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations.

President MOHAMMED HOSNI MUBARAK (sworn in as president on 14 October 1981, eight days after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat).

Cabinet appointed by the President.

People’s assembly (444 elected and 10 presidential appointed members)

Shura (consultative council) (172 elected members, 86 presidentally appointed)

Administrative subdivisions: 26 governorates

GDP (FY 1999-00) : $ 50.2 billion

Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab World and the second-most populous on the African continent. Egypt had a monarchy before Lt. Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew King Farouk in 1952, whom he blamed for Egypt’s poor performance in the 1948 war with Israel. Following a brief experiment with civilian rule, he abrogated the 1923 constitution and declared Egypt a republic on June 19, 1953. Nasser evolved into a charismatic leader, nor only for Egypt, but for the Arab World.

Nasser and his "free officer" movement enjoyed instant legitimacy as liberators who ended 2,500 years of foreign rule. They set out to break the economic and political power of the land-owning elite, to remove all vestiges of British control, and to improve the lot of the people, especially the fellahin (peasants).

After Nasser’s death, Vice President Anwar Saddat was elected President. In a momentous change from the Nasser era, President Saddat shifted Egypt from a policy of confrontation with Israel to one of peaceful accommodation through negotiations. On October 6, 1981, President Saddat was assassinated by Islamic extremists. Hosni Mubarak, Vice President since 1975 and air force commander during the October 1973 war, was elected president later that month. He was re-elected to a second term in October 1987 and to a third term in October 1993. Mubarak has maintained Egypt’s commitment to the Camp David peace process, while at the same time re-establishing Egypt’s position as an Arab leader. Egypt was readmitted into the Arab League in 1989.

Egypt successfully hosted the Arab Summit of 1996. Under the leadership of Hosni Mubarak, all the participants urged for the continuation of the Peace process in the Middle East. However, the future remained uncertain as Israel was now governed by the right-wing Likud party under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

For several years, domestic political debate in Egypt has been concerned with the phenomenon of "political Islam, " a movement which seeks to establish a society governed strictly by Islamic Doctrine. The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928, is legally proscribed but operates more or less openly. Egyptian law, however, prohibits the formation of religion- based parties. Members of the brotherhood have been elected to the people’s Assembly as independents and have been elected to local councils as candidates on the Socialist Labor Party ticket.

Egypt still continued to have very good relations with the West particularly the United States. However it had a very hard time in containing the rise of Islamic fundamentalism within its borders. There was a rise in the number of tourists attacked by fundamentalists. The Egyptian interior minister, Col. Rashad Al-Riyad, tried to contain the attacks by initiating purges into squatter camps to weed out the criminals, but instead just managed to inflict torture on innocent poverty-stricken Egyptians rather than have any effect on the rise of fundamentalism. The government started getting very unpopular as day by day the economic situation worsened . This was mainly due to the rise in population, particularly in cities like Alexandria and Cairo. The old infrastructure was beginning to crumble and the government had been slow in implementing policies and programs to accelerate economic growth.

The greatest factor that put the regime at risk was the slow infiltration of the army and police by people aligned to the Muslim Brotherhood.

On August 5, 1998, President Hosni Mubarak left Cairo in the Presidential Learjet for a one day consultation meeting with King Hussein of Jordan. The flight took off from the Cairo Airport at 6.00 AM. At 6.15 AM, while over the Sinai Peninsula, one of the engines blew up. The Jet crash landed into the sands of the Desert, though it did not completely blow up. The fate of the President was still unknown when a group of rebels, first estimated to be an insignificant 500, attacked the southern city of Aswan at 6.30 AM. The numbers of the fundamentalist rebels were then reported to have swelled to more than 15,000.

At 7.00 AM, there were several explosions at administrative and government offices around Cairo. Several key bridges across the Nile were also sabotaged with explosive. By 9.00 AM, the Central Telephone Exchange was debilitated . At first, the administration was slow in its response and it wasn’t before 8.00 AM that an organized response to the attacks in the south was implemented. There was a huge void in direction in the Egyptian government, and due to the lack of a central power broker due to the absence of President Mubarak, a swift and fast response to the rebels did not materialize. Prime Minister Ali Akbar apparently did not have the influence and clout needed to mobilize the government machinery. Apparently, the Commander in chief of the Armed Forces, Lt. Gen. Altaf Hussein, was the first to take control of the situation. He ordered 3 battalions of infantry to proceed into the Southern districts to ‘repulse and regain lost territory to the outlaws.’

However, the rebels had covered formidable ground in the South, and were marching up the main Highway up the Nile to Cairo. Meanwhile, anarchic crowds of people shouting ‘Allahu Akbar,’ and ‘Kill the infidels’ had begun to swell in Cairo and Alexandria. The main thoroughfares were looted and the houses of ‘secularists’ and ‘intellectuals’ were ransacked. It was early afternoon that the army first reacted and soon, the streets of Cairo became the scenes of huge battlefields. The rioters used Molotov Cocktails, stones, smuggled guns against the ruthless bullets of the police. According to a western reporter, ‘the sequel of the battle of El-Alamein was being played in Cairo.’

In the south, the army was having a lot of trouble repulsing the determined rebels. They had fanned out into the desert and were hard to locate. There were some cases of Artillery exchange between the two sides.

The fate of President Mubarak was still not known, however reports from the Ministry of Interior indicated that he had been found, but was in a comma in the secret bunker outside Cairo. There was still no word on who actually controlled the Egyptian Government machinery. Meanwhile, the rebels from the south started broadcasting on radio, and urged all ‘God fearing sons of Allah to come out and fight for the jihad against the tyrants who sold their hearts to the West.’ One of the rebels, who identified himself as Murtaza Ali, a close lieutenant of the Muslim Cleric Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman, made an impassioned plea for an hour on radio, citing verses from the Koran, and calling the men to do their duty. The source of the radiowaves was detected to be somewhere in Northern Sudan. A situation of complete uncertainty reigned over Egypt for the next few days, as government forces and rebels fought it out. There seemed to be a power struggle in the upper echelons of the cabinet also.

The West, including the United States, watched in disbelief as the whole spectacle took place. President Powell called for the people of Egypt ‘to restrain from supporting any elements that would endanger democracy and the rule of law.’ It was finally on August 9 that, there was a decisive word on President Hosni Mubarak’s condition.

In a broadcast over state television, he addressed the nation in a pained and slow voice, and declared a ‘state of emergency.’ He urged all people to stay in doors at all times, and anybody on the streets would risk their lives. In brutal and crushing attacks the army went on a massacre frenzy on the country. All the means possibly available were used. Finally the army started to take control of the situation. The rebels were either massacred or driven back into Northern Sudan.

Sudan and Libya were big players in the rebel setup, providing all the logistical support and weapons to the rebels. President Mubarak kept up the Police State for more than two months after the attack. He also initiated guerrilla attacks into northern Sudan to debilitate and cripple the rebel setup.

President Mubarak pursued a very vigorous anti-fundamentalism policy after the whole episode and also asked for the extradition of the Muslim cleric from Brooklyn, Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman into Egypt on charges of treason. He asked for logistical help from the United States to help totally modernize his police force, and equip it with the latest technology equipment. He cracked down on all Islamic papers, and even went to the point of regulating all the mosque and religious committees through a government commission. ‘This is to ensure that we do not commit the same mistakes that we have committed in the past as a Nation,’ was the simple explanation he gave.

Meanwhile, he managed to secure 1.5 billion Dollars from the United States as aid towards reviving the country’s sagging economy. He had developed a very close relationship with President Powell. According to President Powell, ‘Mubarak is a statesman I feel that can be trusted to look after the mutual interests of both, the United States and Egypt.’ He started by boosting the Agriculture sector. Numerous aqueducts south of Cairo were built to make previously harsh land into arable land. He gave out the title deeds for this land to peasants, and helped them settle by giving them logistical support and expert advice.

He also boosted industry by jump-starting food processing and canning industries. He also started a very vibrant electronics sector. The quality of life for the people and the economy started to rise. However, the grip of the Islamic fundamentalism still was quite firm on the daily lives of the people. Mubarak did not dare to free the press up. He constantly kept up his raids on suspect localities. Terrorism was a consistent threat to the stability of the nation as sabotage bombings were very commonplace in Cairo. He became wary of the radical Islamic countries around him, and began to initiate more dialogue with Israel. Israel, with convincing from Powell also sent engineers to help out with their water expertise. However, Egypt was still considered an Arab leader, and many Arab countries still looked up to it for leadership.

Egypt’s armed forces are the largest in the region, and include the army (330,000), air defense (89,000), and navy, (31,000). The armed forces inventory includes equipment from the United States, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China. To bolster stability and moderation in the region, Egypt has provided military assistance and training to a number of African and Arab States.

The economy was on a rebound after, a huge slump a few years ago. Inflation was under control, and production was picking up. There were consistent problems with maintaining a constant exchange rate. Economic growth for the year 2001 was estimated at a steady 3.6%.

Land Boundaries: total 2,892 km, Andorra 60 km, Belgium 620 km, Germany 451 km, Italy 488 km, Luxembourg 73 km, Monaco 4.4 km, Spain 623 km, Switzerland 573 km.

Coastline: 3,427 km (on English Channel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea)

Maritime Claims:Continental shelf to 200 meters

Contiguous Zone to 24 nm

Exclusive Economic Zone to 200 nm

Territorial Sea to 12 nm

International Disputes: Bassas da India, Europa Island, Glorioso Islands, Juan de Nova Island and Tromelin Island claimed by Madagascar. Comoros claims Mayotte. Mauritius claims Tromelin Island. Seychelles claims Tromelin Island. Suriname claims part of French Guiana. Mexico claims Clipperton Island. Claim to Adelie Land in Antarctica. St. Pierre & Miquelon is focus of a maritime boundary dispute with Canada.

Land area - 551,670 sq.km.

Arable - 34%

Permanent crops - 2%

Meadowlands and pastures - 21%

Forest and woodland - 29%

Other - 14%

Mineral Resources: Coal, Iron ore, Bauxite, fish, timber, Zinc, Potash.

People:

Population: 59,417,594 (2000 Census)

Ethnic groups: Celtic and Latin with Teutonic, Slavic, North African, Indochinese and Basque minorities

Religion: Roman Catholic 87%, Protestant 2%, Jewish 1%, Muslim 2%, unaffiliated 7%

Labour force : 25.03 million

Legal system: Civil law with indigenous concepts. Review of Administrative but not Legislative acts.

Prime Minister: Alain Juppe

Minister of Defence: Pierre Bescond

Minister of Foreign Affairs: Alain Juppe

France entered a recession in late 1997 with partly due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming switch to the new European currency. GDP growth fell by almost two per cent in ‘97 and ‘98. The government’s investment programs helped a little so that growth fell by a mere 0.8% in 1999. However, these measures only had a limited effect and so the economy again slowed by 1.5% in 2000. While France is on its way to recovery, it is not expected to be out of its economic doldrums until well into 2002

Farmers, upset over loss of some government subsidization, continued to strike and clash with police in major cities well into 1997. After talks between the government and their leaders, the subsidy cuts were reduced. Manufacturing workers went on strike in January 1997 to protest foreign competition. These strikes caused the government to raise tariffs slightly.

In May of 1997, the Algerian government was overthrown by Islamic fundamentalist forces. The new Algerian Islamic Republic initiated a program to detain, then expel all French citizens. Many of those who were expelled complained of human rights abuses including torture during interrogation. France called for economic sanctions on Algeria and began discussions with Algeria to release their detainees.

Three of the detainees were tried for attempting to overthrow the government and were hanged. Talks broke down soon afterward and France broke off diplomatic relations. Riots broke out in Marseilles and other cities in southern France during which several Algerian immigrants were killed. The French government closed their borders to Algerian immigrants and began mass deportation of Algerian citizens. In November a French ship carrying immigrants back to Algiers was stopped and impounded by the Algerian Navy.

French troops were sent in to reclaim it and, though they suffered heavy losses, they were successful. Meanwhile terrorist attacks rocked France. The French public rallied around Jean Marie Le Pen, leader of the ultranationalist Front National. To regain public support, and also to apply pressure on Algeria to release French citizens, French bombers attacked the port of Algiers and several government centers within the city. The French Army also began to give support to anti-Islamic paramilitary groups within Algeria and the Carrier Ferdinand Foch was sent to patrol the area.

After France threatened more air strikes, the Algerians released twenty seven of the forty remaining detainees. In return for a treaty recognizing the Islamic government, and affirming Algerian sovereignty, the remaining hostages were released. French political rhetoric however, indicates strong feelings that Algeria is an unstable state and a threat to French security. As a result of these feelings, a French fleet is always patrolling just outside Algerian waters and France continues to give discreet aid to anti-Islamic forces in Algeria.

In fact, Chirac invited PM Blair and President Clinton to meet concerning the onslaught of fundamentalists in recent years to figure out a strategy for the Cyprus situation. They did not want their actions to foster further atrocities by radical fundamentalists in Turkey.

Continued nuclear weapons testing in the Pacific led to increased anti-French sentiment. In December of 1997 riots broke out in Bangkok, Manila, Canberra and Melbourne, and several French citizens were attacked. In Canberra, rioters drove a jeep through the gates of the French Embassy. In Bangkok, thirty people died when rioters set fire to a hotel. France responded by demanding that the governments of Pacific Rim countries offer protection to French citizens in those countries.

In January of the next year four countries in the region demanded that, in return for protection for French citizens, France would end nuclear testing in the Pacific for all time. When France refused, all French citizens in Thailand who were not engaged in commercial or diplomatic activities had their visas canceled and were deported from the country. The Australian government issued a statement that it could not guarantee the safety of any French citizens not carrying diplomatic passports. France called for economic sanctions to be imposed on the four countries, Australia, Thailand, The Philippines and Fiji.

China however, vetoed this in the Security Council and voiced support for the four. Traveling to Canberra to meet with leaders of the four countries French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe had his car stoned. Negotiations dragged on for eight months until France finally agreed to conduct its tests underground, but still within its Pacific territories. In return, the four countries, who by now have founded the Pacific Test Ban Coalition agreed to return the visas of those deported in the previous crisis.

The Chirac government, intent on increasing French influence in European decisions, opened up several new initiatives with the smaller members hoping to gain leverage in the summit meetings. This plan was hampered however, by French protectionism which caused France’s relations with more enthusiastically European countries to sour. The French government then changed tack and began blocking several EU resolutions. Other countries, notably Great Britain, began to block French initiatives in retaliation.

Relations with Europe continued to worsen until the two sides held a summit meeting in August 1998. The pro-European side agreed to support some French initiatives in return for France’s stopping its stalling diplomacy. This however, did not put the Common Currency in jeopardy and France joined with other European nations in adopting the Euro in October.

Repeated instances of corruption in France’s thriving civil service bureaucracy convinced the government to embark on an overhaul of the entire system and to place new checks to curb its vast power. The Grandes Ecoles which train these civil servants were reviewed in late 1998. The civil service fought these reforms bitterly until President Chirac appointed his political ally Rene Charleroi as its new head in February 1999, giving him great powers to reform the organization.

Elements of the French 22nd Parachute Brigade were sent to Cyprus as a part of the UN peacekeeping mission there. In February of 1999 twelve of these soldiers were killed in a skirmish with Turkish Cypriot regular forces. Acting without UN sanction, France attempted to blockade the Turkish half of the island. When UN representatives tried to halt the blockade, France threatened to withdraw its troops from the peacekeeping mission. In a negotiated settlement, the UN decided to impose limited economic sanctions on the Turkish Cypriot government.

On New Years Day of 2000 fifty four German skinheads crossed the border into Alsace, declaring that they were reclaiming the district for a Greater Germany in the new millennium. They rented a house in a village outside Metz and began stockpiling automatic weapons there. Within a few days thousands of Skinheads were at the border, in a show of support for their comrades in France.

French police, acting on a search warrant, stormed the building and were fired upon by the occupants. One policeman was wounded in the attempt. The building was taken however. When news of the raid reached the skinheads at the border, they rioted and stoned the French border guards. One guard fired into the mob, killing two people.

The French Presidential Election will occur in 2002. As such, parties are now gearing up for the event. The present neo-Gaullist government, still grappling with its Algerian crisis and facing the economic uncertainty of the new currency, is having a difficult time campaigning, while the far right Front National, seemingly in the political doldrums, has been revived. A large portion of the population blames the country’s woes on foreign influences and blames Chirac’s government for submitting to them. The Front National however, is still seen by most French as an extremist party and is not expected to be a major factor in the Presidential race.

In mid-1996 France began to phase out military conscription and prepare for an all professional army. As a result of this, conscription has now taken on the form of a draft lottery rather than a simple universal rule. The French Army has reduced its forces by 21% and the Navy has had to mothball an aircraft carrier due to lack of personnel to man it. France is also overhauling its nuclear arsenal, reducing the number of missiles, while improving the capabilities of its remaining stock. This remodeling of the military is expected to be completed by 2006. While these cuts have been substantial, France is still and is expected to remain the strongest military power in Western Europe.

Land boundaries: 3,621 km, Austria 784 km, Belgium 167 km, Czech Republic 646 km, Denmark 68 km, France 451 km, Luxembourg 138 km, Netherlands 577 km, Poland 456 km, Switzerland 334 km.

Coastline: 2,389 km

Area: 356,910 sq km. Slightly smaller than Montana.

Retains 200 NM exclusive economic zone and 12 NM territorial sea rights.

International Disputes and Claims: none.

NATURAL RESOURCES:

Land:

arable land: 37%

permanent crops: 2%

meadows and pastures: 16%

forest and woodland: 29%

other: 16%

People:

Population: 83,462,981 (2000 census)

Population growth rate: .17%

Language: German.

Literacy: 99%

Work force: 39.36 million

Legal System: Civil law system with indigenous concepts; judicial review of legislative acts in the Federal Constitutional Court; has not accepted ICJ jurisdiction.

President Roman Herzog(since July 1^st, 1994)

Type: Federal Republic

Capital: Berlin

Branches of government: Executive, Legislative, Judicial.

Administrative divisions: 16 Laender.

Major political parties: Christian Democratic Union(CDU); Christian Social Union(CSU); Social Democratic Party(SPD); Free Democratic Party(FDP) Alliance 90/Greens; Communist Party(DKP).

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990, the primary focus of the united Germany was the integration and progression of eastern Germany into the Western economy. However, it was apparent that the eastern region would remain dependent on subsidies funded by western Germany until well into the twenty-first century. From 1990 through 1996, over $525 billion in assistance from Western Germany was fueled to the eastern states which only in late 1996 began to have a residual impact on the eastern German standard of living, which plummeted after unification.

Meanwhile, other major focuses of the German government were internally in regards to the total transfer of government offices from Bonn to Berlin and the assimilation of eastern and western values, as well as externally in combating the EC standard currency, the Euro.

Two decades after unification, it became apparent to the central government that the west would remain burdened with the east until a projected date of 2015. Full integration of eastern and western markets would not be possible until 2030. Current aid from the west to the east amount to over $125 billion per year, yet overall living and socio-economic standards have just begun to positively effect the east and the standard of living in the west has experienced a slight decline. "The difference in standards are just too great" states Ivan von Titmaus, Professor of Finance at the University of Munich. "It is like having two different worlds merging in a clash…such things take time." Eastern Germany’s economy has been changing from one anchored on manufacturing to a more service-oriented economy; Western Germany, with three times the per capita output of the eastern states, has an advanced market economy and is a world leader in exports.

With a converging economy, Germany at December 1998 was still under stress from both the reunification as well as the UNEP Act of Venice Rights(AVR) which stipulated a 10% cap on commercial European pollution levels. With the passage of AVR in August 1997, much of Europe went into a minor economic slump followed by a progressive recovery that surpassed the pre-AVR era. Germany, however, did not recover from AVR until mid year 2000.

In May 1997, a world symposium was conducted in Venice, Italy, where physicians, scientists, and engineers analyzed and debated the ozone predicament. It was discovered on February 18, 1997 that the globe now had 3 major ozone holes with the largest having the estimated area of Antarctica. It was also discovered that the ozone shell was thinning very rapidly, with possible disintegration by 2005. Stated by Tang Pao-Kang, chairman of UNEP, "The ozone can be likened to an egg shell. When the environment is contaminated, the shell will become thinner, weaker, and possibly nonexistent. What we have here is a clear global concern…this is a signal that when the ozone does disappear, the globe turns into a fried egg." With only 70% of the ozone in tact at February 1997, concern grew widespread. As a result of the symposium, UNEP enacted AVR, which drew support from many third world countries and the United States.

AVR, designed to limit commercial pollution to 10% on European(EU/EEC) countries without option to purchase pollution "stock," was also theorized by economists to increase productivity in the countries. "With pressured technology and global support backing it, the productivity in the countries should increase exponentially with both environmentalists and corporate CEOs happy." said Manx Rafiki, chief economic advisor to Togo. However, unlike most of Europe who did turn a profit from AVR within a year of enactment, Germany was left in an economic slump. Too many little problems from within the state to confront with, the arrival of AVR left the German government unprepared for the challenge. As a result of AVR, Germany rendered to borrow $3 billion dollars from the United States to fund the new law, leaving it three months behind other European countries to develop technology and acquire resources. Having spent over $10 billion to fund technology for US automobile safety and fuel conversion standards, Germany now faced another obstacle in catching up to the rest of Europe for AVR in addition to fighting bitter battle with the EU to stop passage of the ECU. Germany was, at December 1997, at the mercy of Europe.

Since 1991 when the EC invented the concept of economic and monetary union, Germany has been in strong opposition. The ECU, which would be characterized by fixed exchange rates, a single currency, a single monetary authority, and a common monetary and exchange rate policy, would to the EC be a natural corollary to the completion of the internal market. At the December 1991 summit in Maastricht, Netherlands, EC heads of government reached agreement on a draft treaty on European economic and monetary union with a timetable for moving to full economic and monetary union(EMU).

The three stages were designed as follows:

Stage 1(1990-1993): Involved strengthening economic coordination, bringing all EC members’ currencies into the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, and lifting restrictions on internal EC capital flows.

Stage 2(1994-1996): A transition period, which would involve increased economic convergence(in terms of inflation, fiscal policy, interest rates, and exchange rate stability) and creation of a transitional European monetary authority.

Stage 3(1997-1999): If, by 1997, a majority of EC members are politically willing and economically prepared for full EMU, exchange rates will be irrevocably fixed, monetary powers will be transferred from national central banks to a European central bank, and a single currency will be created.

***ECU will not go into effect until the Maastricht Treaty package is ratified by all 12 member states.

The stages that evolved:

Stage 3(1997-1999) A majority of the EC members advocated for EMU. However, at 1997, neither Austria or Germany were in favor of the ECU. Exchange rates were fixed irrevocably for the ten EC members, with implementation of the monetary powers beginning to transfer to the new European Credit Reserve(ECR) in Switzerland. However, actual transfer of currency was held off until 1999, in which the time in between was left for lobbying the two bull countries. It was not until August 1999 that Austria gave into the EC, which was followed by Germany on December 31, 1999. Ratification of the EMU went into effect on January 1, 2000, followed by complete transfer of monetary power to ECR, and a proposal for complete phase out of individual country bank notes by 2005.

Although the Deutschmark had been declining in value from a decade high of 1.08 DM/Dollar in March 1997 to the steady 1.56 DM/Dollar (+/- .08), Germany has been adamant to keep itself free from the ECU. With the third highest exchange rate behind Switzerland (1.17 Franc/Dollar) and Austria (1.47 Shilling/Dollar), the EC was hesitant to go ahead with plans, especially with the two out of the three highest currencies opposed to the EMU. However, after intense coercive and persuasive pressure by members of the EC as well as Japan, Austria caved into the EC, leaving Germany as the sole opposition. Germany, however, in the words of Helmut Kohl, "didn’t give a damn what the world thought…We are our own nation, and unless the people of Germany decide that we need should listen, I don’t give a damn." However, when members of the EC responded with higher tariffs and reduced imports of German goods, Germany became economically strangled. The economic conditions of Germany between August and December 1999 were likened to post Great War days after the allies had won. With the EC conspiring with international powers, Germany did not even turn to the United Nations. The United States, which would normally act on behalf of the underdog, played laissez-faire. By November of 1999, Germany was under such economic and political stress that unless it agreed to comply with the EC in the EMU, it would go bankrupt. On December 31, 1999, at 10:56 AM, faced with frustration and remorse, Chancellor Kohl signed the German compliance with the EMU. At 2:03 PM, he resigned.

There was a need for production; products were being produced day by day, but not consumed. Warehouses remained stocked. Coffers remained dry. The unified Germany had no avenue to turn, but seemingly, had to create its own path. In this wake, Herzog promised reform and a "better tomorrow, even if we must bow our heads in anger, in shame."

With production increasing and work in droves, Germany continues to strengthen itself with balance of the east and west. Production output increases by the day. Germany, however, remains angry.

Economics:

Since the mid century, Germany has been one of the most productive countries not only in the EC but worldwide. Output and ratings, thought with fluctuations, continued on a steady rise. It was not until German unification that the GDP and interest ratings declined. Much of the slump was due to the convergence of the two economies and western Germany aiding the eastern half.

From 1991, the EC has been pondering the possibility of the ECU, to be implemented by the EMU. Set in stages, the EMU had the majority of EC support, less Austria and Germany. When Austria went the other way, Germany was left alone. From August through December 1999, Germany faced economic disparity similar to the days after the Great War. After succumbing to the EC on December 31, 1999, Chancellor Kohl signed the German compliance to the EMU.

Since January 2000, Germany’s GDP has been steadily improving; however, percentage of GNP production for defense has dramatically increased from 1.8% in 1996 to 5.6% in 2001.

Defense:

Branches: Army, Navy(includes Naval Air Arm), Air Force, Border Police, Coast Guard

Manpower availability: males age 15-49 23,809,639; males fit for military service 21,503, 206.

Defense expenditures: exchange rate conversion- $72 billion, 5.6% of GNP.

Land Boundaries: total 14,103 km, Bangladesh 4,053 km, Bhutan 605 km, Burma 1,463 km, China 3,380 km, Nepal 1,690 km, Pakistan 2,912 km.

Coastline:

Area: 3.3 million sq km.

Retains 200 NM exclusive economic zone and 12 NM territorial sea rights.

International Disputes and Claims: Status of Kashmir with Pakistan, boundaries with Bangladesh and China, water-sharing with Bangladesh over the Ganges, and Pakistan over the Indus

Cities: Capital--New Delhi (pop. 8.5 million). Other major cities--

Bombay (12.6 million), Calcutta (11.7 million), Madras (5.7 million),

Bangalore (4.6 mil-lion), Hyderabad (3.5 million), Ahmedabad (3.6

million).

Population (2000 est.): 1.06 billion; urban 21%.

Annual growth rate: 2.1%.

Density: 360/sq. km.

Ethnic groups: Indo-Aryan 72%, Dravidian 25%, Mongoloid 2%, others.

Religions: Hindu 82.6%, Muslim 11.4%, Christian 2.4%, Sikh 2%, Jain

0.5%, Buddhist 0.7%, Parsi 0.2%.

Languages: Hindi, English, and 14 other official languages.

Education: Years compulsory--9 (to age 14). Literacy--48%.

Health: Infant mortality rate--81/1,000. Life expectancy--61 yrs.

Work force (est.): 425 million.

Legal System: Common law and trial practices. Accepts ICJ jurisdiction.

chief of state: President Kicheril Raman Narayanan

Legislative Branch:

Rajya Sabha ( Council of States)

Lok Sabha (House of the People)

Since its independence in the mid twentieth century, India has been a country of both politics and power. Animosity between the Hindus and the Muslims led the British to partition British India, creating East and West Pakistan, where there were Muslim majorities. After independence, the Congress Party ruled India under the influence first of Nehru and then his daughter and grandson with brief exceptions up through the late twentieth century. It was not until after May 27, 1991, when Rajiv Ghandi was assassinated, that Congress won 213 parliamentary seats and put together a coalition which returned to power under the leadership of P.V. Narasimha Rao. Rao became the first Congress Party Prime Minister in 30 years who did not come from the Gandhi/Nehru family.

The growth of Hindu nationalism became a major issue in India during 1992, following the demolition of the mosque at Ayodhya on December 6, 1992. The mosque’s destruction and ensuing riots resulted in the deaths of over 1,000 persons, mostly Muslims, in various parts of the country. These events not only threatened Rao’s government, but raised questions about India’s secular foundations. It was these events which would bring Rao’s downfall in the coming years.

Prime Minister Rao from the Congress (I) party came into power in 1991, with a platform based in consensus politics. Although he instituted a series of reform measures, the pace of these reforms were lost in the growth of Hindu nationalism that became a major political issue in the 1990s. With the destruction of the Moslem mosque in Ayodhya on December 6, 1992, historical Islam-Hindu conflict in the region began to resurface.

Following the Ayodhya conflict, the Bharatiy Janata Party (BJP) or Hindu Nationalist Party increased their popularity, becoming the leading opposition party to Congress. Many BJP members supported the destruction of the Ayuodhya mosque, reflecting the belief of many Indians that Hindus have been victimized by centuries of Muslim and British tyranny and that even after independence the world failed to recognize the importance of India. "Our voices have long been muffled by the cries of our young. Now our young are dead and we will be muffled no more." With the BJP’s support largely confined to the Hindi-speaking belt of northern states, the party has been trying to expand its base in other parts of India. Making inroads in the western states of Gujrat and Maharashtra as well as in the southern state of Karnataka, the BJP has been gaining considerable support from the regions.

With policies supporting the deployment of nuclear weapons, a tougher line with Pakistan, restricted foreign investment in the economy, a more "Hindu" educational system, as well as stronger policies against China’s request towards the extradition of the Dalai Lama, the BJP has been trying with success to broaden its base to attract non-Hindus and rural groups. In the 1996 elections , the BJP efforts paid off by reaping the benefits from its conflict with Pakistan by winning 276 seats, sweeping the opposing Congress Party. In a speech given by Vajpayee, the newly appointed Prime Minister, he said "The people of India have spoken. India in her hour of need will have her healing and we will instill the reforms necessary to ail her. "Many saw this as moving one step closer to achieving India’s goal to become the regional superpower by asserting its dominance over its troublesome Muslim neighbor Pakistan as well as the retention all of Kashmir for India.

In early 1997, another major Mosque was burned in Northern India, starting a series of Pakistani-backed skirmishes in the Kashmir region on the Siachen Glacier. With this incident occurring following a series of threats to New Delhi, the Prime Minister began to deploy troops to patrol and safeguard the region. However, the Pakistani threat became more acute when an unclaimed bomb exploded near the Indian border. Although there was one known Indian casualty, the death seemed to spark a flame which spread like wildfire throughout the Indian community both within the government as well as without. The major concern of the Indian government, as well as the international community, was the threat of possible nuclear weapons in Pakistan. China had long been in the international arms scene, but never before such a threat to India. However, between March and June of 1997, US Intelligence had reported sightings of Chinese built nuclear arms crossing the border into Pakistan. With increasing hostility from the Pakistanis, India began to build up its armed forces and arm its ICBMs for possible confrontation. If necessitated, said Prime Minister Vajpayee, "we will use every force to defend our people and our homes. We will use every means available to us to keep out country safe, be it words, or be it nuclear."

Vajpayee increased troops in the mountains of Kashmir, now facing skirmish attacks from Pakistan. When a pipe bomb was set off in the officer’s mess in August of 1997, killing the vice commander of field operations, New Delhi issued full support for an offensive to penetrate five miles into the Pakistani border. However, even before authorization reached field command, Pakistan launched a frontal assault led by Sino/Soviet warplanes. For the next three weeks, fighting escalated into a fully armed conflict. When British SAS discovered that Pakistan was arming its nuclear arsenals, UN involvement led by the United States, United Kingdom, and Brazil sent a peacekeeping assignment to India to quell the hostilities. It is estimated that Pakistan suffered casualties 80 thousand and India with over 100,00 casualties. Still today, border tensions are unresolved. Although the five mile penetration was never achieved, India currently holds, under UN sanction, two miles worth of interior on the Pakistan-India border. It is assumed that Pakistan is negotiating further sale of arms from China.

In addition to the military troubles India has been facing along the Pakistan border, in 2000, the BJP began implementing their political promises, beginning with requests to India for the extradition of the Dalai Lama. Since the mid 1980’s China has been petitioning India to turn over the Dalai Lama, which took exile to India in 1959 after China declared its own Lama. With the Dalai Lamas presence, India has amounted not only a religious shrine, but an economic one as well. It was estimated that in 1999 that over $30 million in revenue came to India as a result of the Dalai Lama. Due to the nature of the request, neither the United States or any one of the major Western powers intervene. However, China did post an ultimatum that India respond by mid 2001. Dependent upon India’s decision, China would either increase trade and initiate unprecedented Sino-Indian cultural relations or stop all economic and political activity between the two nations with possible military confrontation.

With possible or accelerating military confrontation on two fronts, India, in evaluating its condition, would be a powerful contender both militarily as well as economically. Having the third largest military in the world, it would most likely absorb any military confrontation with enemies. With such a large labor force and business contracts from Western and Japanese companies, it would have progressive economic development. The task remains on whether the BJP plans to keep on its promises, as well as the outcome of China’s offer.

The Indian population surpassed the billion mark in 1999. More than 0% of the population lives at or below the poverty line. Despite an increasing focus on internal strife, India managed to prosper economically throughout the 1990s, with a growth rate of almost 4%. Some of India's problems lie in the lack of land available to sustain its population. 75% of the population directly depend on agriculture. India experienced an annual economic growth rate of almost 6% throughout the 1990s, and continue to maintain that growth rate. Exports are increasing without the government incurring a lot of foreign debt, which is propelling India's status as an economic superpower in the region.

Defense:

Branches: Army, Navy, Air Force, Coastal Patrol

India holds the third largest military in the world. Supreme command of India’s armed forces rests with the President, but actual responsibility for national defense lies with the cabinet committee for political affairs under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister.

Land boundaries: 0 km.

Coastline: 29,748 km

Area: 377,805 km; slightly smaller than California.

Retains 200 NM exclusive economic zone and 12 NM territorial sea rights.

International Disputes and Claims: Japan has been in dispute with the Russia over the islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and the Habomai group. The islands are currently occupied and administered by Russia, claimed by Japan. Liancourt Rocks disputed with Korea; Senkaku-shoto Islands are claimed by Peoples Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan).

NATURAL RESOURCES:

Land:

arable land: 11%

permanent crops: 2%

meadows and pastures: 6%

forest and woodland: 60%

other: 21%

People:

Population: 131,634,070 (2000 census)

Population growth rate: 0.4%

Language: Japanese.

Literacy: 99%

Work force: 69.3 million

Legal System: Modeled after the European civil law system based on Roman law with English-American influence; judicial review of legislative acts in the Supreme Court; accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations.

Emperor AKIHITO(since January 7^th, 1989)

Prime Minister Ryutaro HASHIMOTO(since January, 1996)

Type: Constitutional Monarchy with a parliamentary government.

Capital: Tokyo

Branches of government: Executive(Prime Minister), Legislative, Judicial.

Administrative divisions: 47 prefectures.

After World War II, Japan was placed under international control of the Allies until April 28, 1952, when the Treaty of Peace with Japan afforded a transition to full sovereignty. Since World War II, Japan has emerged as a global economic superpower. Combined with the United States, the two economies comprised about 30% of global GDP and over 60% of the Western industrialized nations’ GDP. Trade problems have been most visible between the US and Japan, epitomized when in a visit to Japan Lee Iacocca, then CEO of Chrysler Corp said "these bastards just don’t get it…Trade, like communication, is a two way deal. Talking to them is like talking to a statue, except statues listen."

Since its admission to the United Nations in 1956, Japan has been active in UN peacekeeping operations.

Since late 1995, it was rumored that Japan was to be allotted a permanent seat on the UN security council.

Since the three incidents involving US troops charged with molesting/rape of Japanese civilians, Japan has been pressuring the United States to withdraw its troops from Japanese soil. This pressure evolved into the Exodus Treaty which ordered gradual US military dissipation from Japanese soil and an absolute withdrawal from the island nation by August 1999. It was replaced by the long active Japanese self-defense force (SDF), which has emerged as a both a civilian police force and a wartime army consisting of ground, naval, and air power. However, due to fear of military confrontation resulting from Chinese civil unrest and the possibility of Taiwan’s independence, Japan asked the US for further support once again. This raised outcries in both houses of Congress; Richard Bryan, D-Nevada, Chairman of the Senate Armed Forces Committee stated: "we built them, we sheltered them, they kick us out, then ask us for support? Japan is a constitutional monarchy, but we are not her subjects." However, President Clinton remained sympathetic to the Japanese cause, citing them as "advocates of world peace" and "vital to the economic stability of the world."

Japanese lobbyists worked tediously trying to secure the necessary votes. By now, it was clear that the situation in Southeast Asia was increasingly volatile, inducing President Clinton to dispatch troops and ships to the area. According to the War Powers Act of 1973, Congress was informed and asked for approval for permanent stay. In the wake of increasing oil prices, Americans were facing further escalation of prices due to lack of navigable safe waters in the area. Japanese lobbyists were successful when they financed these propaganda campaigns appealing to the shrinking purse of Americans.

The US, as of 2000, holds a trade deficit of $18 billion to Japan, with an expected surplus by 2005. Trade with the Japanese has always been imperative, with US exports to Japan rising by approximately 42%, with increases as high as 87% in the sectors where trade agreements have been reached. Imports from Japan have systematically decreased; although free trade with Japan was established in 1998, the overall influx of Japanese goods sold in the United States has declined. Prime Minister Hashimoto has thus sought to expand their trade relations with the ASEAN and free trade talks are scheduled to begin in February of 2002.

Automobiles, the once Japanese blue-chip of the American market, has been, since 1999, a slow but steady decline in the consumer market. This results from cooperative research and development efforts between the Chrysler Corporation and General Motors Corporation in response to the EC2010 law passed by Congress in 1997. EC2010 requires a steady increase of electric cars in the US consumer market, making all new cars purchased in California, Washington, and Texas fully electric by 2006, and all new cars purchased in the United States to be fully electric by 2010. The Japanese had initial success with Toyota’s RAV4 Electric Car(EC) which became the standard for all EC sport utilities. However, when glitches started appearing and not disappearing Toyota’s 2002 RAV4, Honda’s 2003 Civic and Accord, consumer confidence in the once invincible Japanese armor began to rust. In 2003, Chrysler announced the arrival of the Plymouth PC, or as COO John H. Hunter put it, "you can call it anything you want…Personal Car, Power Car, Politically Correct, I don’t give a damn what you call it as long as you know that it is going to revolutionize the future of automobiles." Classed as a midsize sedan, Plymouth’s PC outsold all competition four years running.

Another niche that the Japanese were able to corner themselves in was that of agriculture. Consistent pressure from Japanese farmers and US interests have all but held the government at a standstill. Although US agriculture exports to Japan have increased by 43% since 1993, and by 28% from Ukrainian fields, many markets remained untapped. Japan has prided itself in its capacity to produce rice. In 1999, only 23% of rice were imported. However, after heavy tsunami attacks on the islands in 2000, only 34% of the Japanese rice crop was salvageable. Because of the heavy need of rice in eastern culture, global rice prices skyrocketed, causing a world wide shortage and the Nippon Exchange to plummet a record 560 points. As a Lehman Brothers analyst stated, "The Japanese have put themselves in a terrible position. They didn’t take help when it was offered, and now they are suffering for it."

Since its admission to the United Nations, Japan has always been in cooperative action to reduce the number of illegal building, use, and sale of nuclear arms. This includes action in the Non-Proliferation Treaty and agreements made in the International Atomic Energy Agency. Supporting countries globally and with the support from countries globally, Japan in 1995 announced to the Security Council its interests in attaining a permanent seat on the Security Council. Since 1995, Japan has been in conference with both the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and China to discuss the possibility of reaching agreements to further Japanese interests. Since China’s internal problems have risen, the exiled government has expressed interest in supporting Japan in its request for permanent membership in return for technological support once the military coup is overthrown. However, Prime Minister Hashimoto was unwilling to grant this request, obviously trying to cripple a growing Chinese threat. To further trade interests, the United States has offered its interests and approval; the United Kingdom and France were the only ones that were apprehensive due to the fact that if Japan was to be offered a bid to the Security Council, the UK and France would be inclined to offer such terms to other interested European nations. However, due to overwhelming support and pledged support from Japan to the UN Peacekeeping efforts in the middle east, admission to the UN Security Council was offered, and accepted in late 1999.

As a global power in not only economics but in politics, Japan remains an economic super-power in the world. Although facing declines in the automobile industry and recovering from losses in agriculture, the outlook on Japan remains strong. The SDF has risen to become not only a self defense shield, but a offensive sword. No longer under the watchful eye of the United States, it faces challenges impeded only by itself.

In 1999, Japan was faced with a situation in which both China and ASEAN nations increased their presence in the area of the Spratly islands causing a small skirmish that injured twelve sailors from a Japanese frigate. Although the Japanese had tried to remain separate from this issue, they were forced to face the prospect of armed confrontation if they were to navigate safely in the area. Aside from this, they tried to schedule talks in Tokyo for a resolution to the question. Not surprisingly, they were turned down by Li Peng of China. Even so, the arms race and militarization in the area is of particular concern to a Japanese economy rapidly seeking to expand its markets in Southeast Asia. But as the situation in the middle east continues to wane, Asian countries seeking to secure oil rights in the Spratly region are in a particularly important race for an end to the dispute. Now that Taiwan has secured its independence, it has been able to make a few concessions with ASEAN nations but General Tse’s China remains unwilling to submit to multi-lateral talks. Japan hopes that its RRF will discourage these nations from at least provoking an outbreak of battle or war.

As Japan continues its economic expansion, it also seeks to increase the security of its navigable waters. Although the ASEAN has responded to calls from the reformed Charter to advance a rapid response force (RRF), Japanese police officials have expressed numerous times that Japan needs to broaden its security mechanisms by way of cooperation with the Republic of China, even so Taiwan is not willing to subject itself to the prospect of Japanese soldiers on its soil once again. Prime Minister Hashimoto has nevertheless suggested to President Lee Tung-Hui of Taiwan that talks be scheduled for such cooperative military agreements by 2002. The Japanese public, however, continues to be skeptical about any cooperation with the rising "dragon" in regards to their economic boom, fearing a weakening of Japanese trading agreements and exclusive markets in Southeast Asia. Still, as the new permanent member of the Security Council, Japan’s PM is doing his best to exert the influence it deems appropriate for its reputation and security.

A United Nations RRF base has been established in Tokyo whereby tactical operations are to be directed through this communications center. ASEAN members have been trying to incorporate their own meager security arrangements with Japan, obviously in an attempt to enhance their own ability to keep the peace.

The recent "unification of Korea, the break-up of mighty China, the emergence of an independent Taiwan, and the militarization of the Spratly has led Japanese officials to re-asses their strategic defense. Of particular importance is the uncertainty about nuclear weapons in the hands of General Tse of China, possible Korean mediocre nuclear weaponry, Taiwanese nuclear technological knowledge. It is very important for Japan’s PM to address these issues in the near future. Till now, Japan has been merely pressuring these nation to abide by the more stringent revision of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2000. Korean officials have already scheduled a review of their facilities by the end of 2001, but Taiwan, facing the "threat" of China retains its "right" to pursue this technology. PM Hashimoto has stated: " Soon, the arms race in east Asia will become so disturbing to the world that history books will record the tragic "accidents" that are bound to occur when no intelligent restraint is placed upon nations holding such nuclear weaponry. Has not Hiroshima and Chernobyl provided enough deterrent? "

Economics:

As the second largest economy in the world, Japan and the US share a combined global output of 3%. A major market for US manufactured goods, Japan is also the largest foreign market for US agricultural products with imports in 2000 valued at more than $20.1 billion.

With mature relationships with the US, EEC, China, and Taiwan, Japan has rooted itself in the shared interests and responsibilities to promote global growth, open markets, and a uniform world trading system. With a global trade surplus of $1.3 trillion, Japan holds as one of the strongest economic powers in the world. And it promises to rise in its standing once ASEAN-Japanese talks conclude in 2002 expanding markets and dramatically centering on an Asian future market.

Defense:

Self Defense Force (SDF)

Conceived as a police force during peace times, it can be activated to military duty in times of war. Divisions include Japan Ground self-defense Force(Army), Japan Maritime self-defense Force(Navy), Japan Air self-defense Force(Air Force).

Manpower availability: males age 15-49 35,836,652; males fit for military service 31,556,374.

Defense expenditures: exchange rate conversion -$63.1 billion, 3% of GDP.

Land Boundaries: The Korean Peninsula is 966 kilometers long and 217 kilometers wide.

Area: 291,000 sq. km.

International Disputes and Claims: Liancourt Rocks, a small island, is claimed by Japan and short section of boundary with China is indefinite.

arable land: 19%

permanent crops: 1%

meadows and pastures: 1%

forest and woodland: 70%

other: 9%

Population: 71 million (1999 census)

Population growth rate: 1%

Language: Korean, English taught in high schools

Religions: Christianity 58%, Buddhism 37%, Confucianism 3%, Chondogyo, 1.5%, shamanism (folk religion) 0.5%,

Literacy: 95%

Work force: 30 million (2001 estimate)

Average life expectancy: 69%

Legal System: Combines elements of continental European civil law systems, Anglo-American law, and Chinese classical thought

Vice President: Pyong Il

Type: Republic (provisional government)

Legislative branch: unicameral National Assembly (Kukhoe)

Judicial branch: Supreme Court and appellate courts, Constitutional Court

Administrative divisions: 18 provinces and 9 special cities

ECONOMY:

GDP (pre unification 2000): North Korea--$15 billion

South Korea--$364 billion

GDP (per capita 2000): North Korea--$600

South Korea--$8,000

The shaky situation of modern-day Korea stems directly from its troubled past. It was largely independent up until the late 19^th century, when Russia, China, and Japan fought over Northeast Asia. Japan eventually defeated its competitors and assumed control over Korea, formally annexing it in 1910. For the successive 30 years the Koreans were subject to the tight control stemming directly form Tokyo, experiencing a formal repression of cultural habits and Korean language. In the later days of the Second World War, both the USSR and the USA invaded the peninsula in the effort to defeat Japan. At its unexpected surrender, the United States proposed—and the Soviet Union agreed—that Japanese troops surrender to U.S. forces south of the 38^th parallel and to Soviet forces north of that line. Originally, a plan was drawn to ensure Korean unification: a Joint American-Soviet Commission was established and it met regularly. However, the initial hopes for Korean unity dissipated as the politics of the Cold War and domestic opposition resulted in two separate nations with diametrically opposed political, economic, and social systems. After elections were held in the southern part in 1948, warfare broke out along the border and the Korean conflict (1950-53) started. The conflict saw no winners, and Korea was formally separated along the 38^th parallel, the northern section under Soviet influence, and the southern under American one. Up to the mid-1990’s

the situation remained extremely tense with South Korea becoming a major economic power and North Korea remaining one of the few communist states left after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Throughout 1996 and 1997 the situation in Korea was rapidly deteriorating: more and more North Korean nationals attempted to cross over into South Korea as the economic situation continued to decline. 1996 saw widespread damage in the crop production because of widespread mismanagement, insufficient funding, and lack of mechanization as well as immunization. North Korea therefore needed desperately external aid to keep its population fed and clothed. Previously it had been receiving aid from Japan as well as the United States, but it jeopardized and eventually lost all foreign aid by refusing time and again inspections in accordance with the UN sponsored Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It was believed that the nuclear reactors that both the United States and Japan had provided in exchange of stability were being constantly used to stock up on the country’s confirmed nuclear power. The fast-breeding plutonium generating Japanese reactors could never be inspected by UN officials and were suspected of producing high yields of enriched plutonium.

The government situation in North Korea was not rosy either: Kim Jong Il, the son of former North Korean leader Kim Il Sung, had followed this hard-line policy allegedly to prove to the ruling party in North Korea that he could and would carry on the legacy of his father Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Il, who had been constantly put under scrutiny and made to appear ridiculous to the public by his younger brothers Kim Pyong Il and Kim Yong Ju, looked at his stance as a sign of his waning leadership abilities. Meanwhile South Korea looked upon this situation with concern, as the new anti-corruption leader Kun-u Pak (the former ambassador to the United States) assumed control and further strengthened the economic platform of his country on a worldwide basis.

In 1998 members of the nomenklatura, the North Korean bureaucracy, sympathetic to Kim Pyong Il and Kim Young Ju, began to challenge and question the viability of Kim Jong Il’s authority. An actual coup was attempted on November 23^rd, but it was crushed by generals still sympathetic to Jong Il and his old policy. He made a serious mistake as he did not reward these generals for their protection, but rather continued as if nothing had happened, making only superficial purges; his brothers, suspected as the masterminds of the coup, were not touched, as he feared the public reaction. His popularity declined because of the mishandling of this affair.

North Korea continued to descend in a spiraling path due to the continuing economic slump. Heavy good production was virtually stopped, and state factories closed down. People focused on day to day survival instead of long term plans due to the lack of basic resources such as grain or rice. Black market flourished, which prompted Kim Jong Il to introduce martial law. The total output of North Korea approached zero as the country closed all borders and locked itself in.

The continuous decline of the economy pushed many members of the nomenklatura to sympathize with Pyong Il and Yong Ju. Further problems in agriculture caused widespread starvation. The number of North Koreans to cross the DMZ into South Korea had grown and the overall morale of North Koreans had dropped. Some generals within the Inmun Gun continued to have problems with the decline of morale within the troops. Unconfirmed sources informed South Korea that as a demonstration of Jong Il’s authority, several platoons of rebel troops had been publicly executed so as to ensure better behavior of other troops.

South Korea looked upon this situation with interest as groups demanding unification of Korea sprouted up, justifying their actions with the fact that "people of our own blood are dying up there…we have to do something for them…Unite Korea!!" as an unidentified university student put it. The United States and South Korea engaged in secret talks about North Korea.

1999, with the approach of the ‘fin-de-siecle’, saw the situation in North Korea worsen because of several events. The population began openly complaining about their situation and demanded changes, which were, as usual, flatly denied. Kim Jong Il threatened several times in the course of the year to break through the DMZ. Under his leadership sneak attacks across the DMZ, vis-à-vis, and secret underground tunnels reached all time highs. Jong Il, whom again looked to these actions as proving his ability to lead a nation that had continued to fall both economically and politically, drew further criticism from his brothers Pyong Il and Yong Ju, who had both amassed large support from nomenklatura and several generals of the Inmun Gun.

These generals amassed large quantities of weapons and resources and started massive recruiting among the poorer tiers of society, justifying this action as being necessary to the welfare of the state. In this way, the generals guaranteed the obedience of these men, as they would get paid and fed. The rest of the country was totally impoverished, somewhat similar in condition to Iraq in the early 1990’s. It had become by this time a pariah state, refusing all outside influence. The economic situation of North Korea was in shambles due to the little attention the government had devoted it in order to keep control over the population. A massive program of popularization of communism, a sort of Great Leap Forward, was proposed by Kim Jong Il, but was canceled due to the condition of the state. Who had control over the nuclear weapons program was dubious at best. South Korea became very uneasy over this militarization in a state where a very strong army already existed but realized the actual strategic intentions behind this. Kun-u Pak began supporting pro-unification talks, and had secret meetings with top officials in the North Korea government.

On the 14^th of February 2000, Pyongyang was quickly overtaken by a group of the Inmun Gun generals collaborating with Pyong Il and Young Ju with minimal bloodshed; the population fully supported the uprising, which, they hoped, would alter the status quo once and for all. Both Pyong Il and Young Ju had decided that it was time to overthrow the inefficient and dying communist state. Under pressure from the nomenklatura and the Inmun Gun they had to openly lead the rebellion, or be blamed along with their elder brother. Immediately after taking over the capital, they started open talks with the United States and South Korea. The latter openly supported the rebellion, and joined the talks on a very friendly basis. Jong Il fled the city and retreated in the Northeastern provinces with all loyal troops, where he immediately launched a counter-offensive with the help of hard-line villagers.

In the later course of the year, Jong Il descended along the eastern coastline all the way to the DMZ, and threatened to wage war in South Korea. On August14, an informal referendum was organized by Pyong Il and Yong Ju, asking whether North Koreans wanted reunification and a new government or the old system. The response was overwhelmingly in favor for a new government. Meanwhile, Jong Il fortified himself close to the DMZ and ignored all invitations to talks with South Korea, the United States, and the UN).

In the early months of 2001, North Korea, South Korea and the United States had an intensive schedule of talks , and on July 19 2001 what had been unthinkable for more than 50 years had actually happened: South Korean troops passed through the DMZ to help North Korea entrap the forces of Kim Jong Il. The same day a provisional government was brokered by the UN and the United States. Under this provisional government based on South Korea’s political system, South Korea’s leader Kun-u Pak was declared president of Unified Korea after many negotiations and disagreements from Pyong Il and Yong Ju. In order to appease North Korea, Pyong Il himself was appointed temporarily to the post of Vice-president. As of late, this careful balance has been fragile and shaky at best.

As stated previously, the North Korean economy is in shambles, while South Korean economy is extremely active. Much of the northern population shifted in mass to the richer South, leaving behind empty countryside and cities. One of the challenges of Korea Unified is to make viable the economic situation in the north. The events of unified Germany are only too familiar to the current situation of Korea Unified. Basically, the economy in the South is export-oriented in a vigorously entrepreneurial society that is also characterized by a tight labor market, strong inflationary pressures, and a rising account deficit. The North was characterized by collective farming, and now is basically a source of raw goods such as coal and iron. Industrial output is concentrated on the southern end. A basic problem with Korea’s system is that it wants to transform from a low-wage/low-technology producer to a high-wage/high-technology nation while supporting the newly unified North Korea.

The military of Korea Unified has not been organized yet, and is still divided into two factions. North Korea has a standing army of approximately 1.5 million soldiers, while the South has approximately 600,000. The air force is old and weak, as well as the navy. Much of the spending in military was concentrated on strengthening the DMZ, so very little power can be projected outside its national boundaries.

Area: 803,943 sq. km. (310,527 sq mi.)

Land Boundaries: total 6,774 km, Afghanistan 2, 430 km, China 523 km, India 2, 912 km, Iran 909 km

Cities: Capital--Islamabad and adjacent Rawalpindi comprise a national

capital area with a combined population of 2.1million; Karachi 10

• million; Lahore 5 million; Faisalabad 2 million.

arable land: 23%

permanent crops: 0%

meadows and pastures: 6%

forest and woodland: 4%

other: 67%

irrigated land: 170,000 sq km (2000 est)

Population (2001 est.): 200 million.

Annual growth rate (1999): 3%.

Density: 150 per sq. km. (389 per sq. mi.).

Ethnic groups: Punjabi, Sindhi, Pathan, Baloch, Muhajir (i.e., Urdu-

speaking immigrants from India).

Religions: Muslim 97%; small minorities of Christians, Hindus, and

others.

Languages: Urdu (national and official), English (official), Punjabi,

Sindhi, Pushtu, Baloch.

Work force: 40 million

provincial assemblies

provincial high courts, Supreme Court,

Federal Islamic Court.

The Islamic Fundamentalist movement that had been sweeping the Islamic World in the late 1990s came to a major head in 1997, with the coup d’etat in Saudi Arabia where the Saudi king was assassinated by a fundamentalist regime. Despite Pakistan’s increasing Islamization, the government remained neutral during the three week conflict due to its close ties with Saudi Arabia. Many claimed that the coup was orchestrated by Iranian plotters ready to spread the Sharia across the continent. More specifically, there were those who believed that pakistani troops may have lent a hand in coordinating this golpe, but it remains confusing as to whether Iran and Pakistan, rivaling leders of Islamic nations were actually willing to cooperate in such an operation.

Bhutto’s government successfully won re-election in 1997, for its widespread economic and social reform in the country dealing with the extreme poverty , narcotics problem, and human rights issues. Her party, the Pakistan People’s Party, also gained ten seats from the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League/Nawaz group, who criticized the government’s lack of involvement in the growing conflict in Kashmir. The election though was decided upon the economic growth of the country which grew to 4% in 1997, with increased foreign investment mainly from France, Germany, and Hong Kong. Illegal poppy trade to Hong Kong and Singapore was cut almost in half with increased domestic military presence.

As the protector of Muslim interests in South Asia, Pakistan involved itself deeply in the Kashmir region conflict to once and for all "rid the state of its Indian oppressor." Pakistan -supported skirmishes by the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front started in late 1997 near the border between Pak- and Indian-occupied Kashmir. As military maneuvers continued in the area, military excerizes theratened peace once again. Unfortunately, a missile was "accidentally" sent over the border into Kashmir. The burning of a Muslim Mosque in northern India and the coninuing hold of the BJP in Indian politics made the thought of compromise a sober fantasy.

Apparently loaded with chemical agents that would attack the central nervous system, Indian troops fell along a two-mile radius. This induced a series of missile strikes along the border along with heavy casualties as a result of ground troops fighting unprepared for the gaseous torment. Nevertheless, the Security Council was able to broker a cease-fire in the area that only remained until early in 2000.

By March 2000, the skirmishes escalated into a month long armed conflict between Pakistan and India, as each side claimed Kashmir as its own. Pakistan sent in more than 10,000 troops to fight alongside the Kashmiri groups in the mountains and the Siachen Glacier. During this period of time, Bhutto’s government was at the height of its popularity, as many Pakistanis believed freeing Kashmir was "gihad". The Pakistanis suffered numerous causalities though due to Indian airstrikes directed in civilian areas. One attack on a village near the capital Islamabad, killed close to 800 people. Pakistan retaliated with a missile strike at the Indian border, killing about 1000 people. War was averted when the United Nations sent in peacekeeping troops and started brokering negotiations on the future status of Kashmir.

Bhutto’s government has been accused of being soft in this conflict, especially in accepting U.N. brokering. Many of its reforms have come under attack from the PML party and have lost popularity with the people. The 2001 elections will be decided on who has the harder line on the Pak-Indian conflict!

During the 1999 dabets in the General Assembly, Pakistan lobbied very strpongly against the inception of India as a permanent member. Bhutto made it clear that such a move would constitute a slap to Pakistani interests in the region. It is not clear what result the new India will incite, but many strategists feel that India has secured its influence over Kashmir by effectively securing verto power in the Security Council.

Pakistani relations with China are surprisingly at an all time high. General Tse in China is wielding incredible influence over the nation in an effort to strategically expand theatres of conflict along Indian borders. Pakistani officilas care not for this but are merely satisfied with increased military support for their cause in Kashmir.

Land Boundaries: On its northern and eastern sides Russia is bounded by the Arctic and Pacific oceans, and it has small frontages in the northwest on the Baltic Sea at St. Petersburg and at the detached Russian oblast (province) of Kaliningrad. On the south it borders North Korea, China, Mongolia, and the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. On the southwest and west it borders the former Soviet republics of Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as Finland and Norway; in addition, Kaliningrad (formerly a part of what was once East Prussia annexed in 1945) abuts Poland and Lithuania.

Retains standard exclusive economic and territorial sea rights .

Land use (1998): forested c. 44.6%; meadows and pastures 4.5%; agricultural and under permanent cultivation 7.8%; other 42.1%.

Population (1999): 143,178,000

Urban-rural (1999): urban 76.8%; rural 23.2%.

Ethnic composition (1997): Russian 85.0%; Tatar 3.9%; Ukrainian 2.4%;Chuvash 1.2%; Bashkir 1.0%; Belorussian 0.7%; Mordovian 0.7%; German 0.6%; other 4.5%.

Social participation. Eligible voters participating in last national election: 57.8%.

Gross national product (1999):$2,370 per capita).

Total active duty personnel (2000): 1,570,000 (army 76.2%, navy 15.2%, airforce 8.6%). Military expenditure as percentage of GNP (1998): 23.5% (world 3.7%); per capita expenditure U.S.$504.

Legal system: Federal multiparty republic with a bicameral legislative body (Federal Assembly comprising a Federation Council [178] and a State Duma [450]).

Prime Minister: Anatoly Chubais

National Security Advisor: Vyacheslav Velikhov (former Foreign Intelligence Director)

Secretary of State: Aleksander Livshits (former Finance Minister)

Secretary of Defense: Mikhail Kolesnikov

450 seats in total. 225 seats for parties with more than 5% of the vote and the rest

Yabloko: 70

KPRF: 200

ZR: 10

NDR: 35

LDRP: 65

AP: 20

Other: 50

In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev was forced to revamp the economy of the Soviet Union. Thus began the process called ‘Perestroika’, and in the end, a new free-market Russia emerged along with 15 new countries.

After the election victory of President Boris Yeltsin in the 1996 election, a period of uncertainty and lack of direction prevailed in Russia for the next one year. This was partly due the ill health of the President, who was bedridden a for long sporadic periods, with his heart ailment. The situation was compounded because, the new cabinet was a totally fractious group of men who did not get along and always ended up over-riding each others directives.

The war in Chechnya continued hopelessly into 1997, partly because of the army’s vested interest in keeping it going. The National Security Advisor, Alexander Lebed, initiated many peace talks, but could not get his own side to come and support him. It was a large drain on the economy of Russia. Stories of fierce infighting between top officials in Lebed’s camp and the Military Commander Konstantin Pulikovsky abounded from Kremlin.

Meanwhile, the quality of life continued to deteriorate in Russia. The communist party was on the rise, and was now lead by a charismatic young ex-general Josef Pulkov. In a historic rally with an attendance of more than 700,000 people in Moscow on the Labor Day of 1997, he declared, " We shall nurture the Fatherland once again. It is only a matter of time before all our people realize the folly of the present system and overthrow it to return to our glorious past." Bread and Meat riots started to break out in Moscow in August, and hordes of people began gathering outside Moscow to protest. The communist party began to incite the people into civil disobedience. The crime situation in Moscow was totally out of control, with regular gunfights between the communists and the Russian Mafia.

President Yeltsin suffered from a serious heart attack in the Fall of 1997. The Prime Minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, who had the constitutional right to succeed Yeltsin after his death, swore himself into office even before the death was made public. He installed a trusted ally, and former President’s chief of staff as the new Prime Minister. He fired his top Military Brass, and called a complete withdrawal from Chechnya. He imposed a temporary police emergency state in Moscow and called in a division of the army to take control of the city, and restore calm.

The effects of the free market reforms were only being seen in the cities, and businesses that had mushroomed were growing richer. However in most of the ‘Glubinka’ or countryside, it was a story of a hopeless situation and misery. In an unprecedented move, Chernomyrdin announced the implementation of a Five-year plan to stimulate growth in the economy, and improve quality of life in Russia. This was reminiscent of the communist Five-year plans in the beginning of their rule in Russia. According to the plan, funds were to be pumped into starting up the stalled industry of the pre-Free Market days, and steps to reverse the urban decay were to implemented. In particular, the Oil, Logging, Steel and Mining industries were to be revived. Russia received the avid support of the United States in obtaining appropriate technologies. However, the whole program got a very slow start as the worldwide recession even affected Russia. Investment from the West was not forthcoming, and Russia’s traditional markets in Oil, and minerals were low on Demand. Chernomyrdin ruled with an iron fist, and quelled all forms of civil unrest. He however, did not dare to touch the freedom of the press or speech so as not to lose the support of the West.

Relations between the two former superpowers were at a high point when the President visited Washington in May, 1998. According to President Clinton, " The old days are just a sour dream, a new era of cooperation has begun." Joint cooperation treaties on subjects ranging from Nuclear Power, to Education were signed.

Russia entered into closer Economic union with the Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. The reliance of their economies on each other after centuries under one rule, had made them so interdependent, that it was to their own disadvantage to stay apart. Russia depended on Ukraine for food and industry, Kazakhstan for oil, while they depended heavily on Russian natural resources, heavy industries and defense. The countries also entered into mutual defense treaties.

In the South, the new Central Asian nations drew closer to one another, and a new player emerged as Iran began to influence on its distant cousins. The nations of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan were inhabited by peoples closely related to and speaking the language of the Iranians. They were mostly ruled by warlords from the communist era, and there was a fair amount of unrest in the population. Iran entered into trade agreements with all these nations and was moving fast to establishing strong relations with each one. Kazakhstan was the most "Russified" of these nations, and was still under the strong influence of Russia, especially due to the presence of the ICBM’s. According to a Russian Foreign Ministry official, these events were viewed by Russia as "very disturbing, particularly in light of the recent Chechan conflict, and the ongoing turmoil in Armenia."

The Caucases, inhabited by mutually hostile populations was still in a state of turmoil. Armenia has ruined its economy over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region within Azerbaijan populated by Armenians fighting for independence from Azerbaijan. and has been relying on Russian help to sustain the fighting. Greater Aid from Iran and Turkey helped the Azeri’s launch several successful strikes that have crippled the Armenian forces. A solution to this dispute is probably nowhere in sight.

The worst tensions on Russia’s border blew up in August 2000. This was after an attempt to overthrow the pro-Russian government in Mongolia by a group of communists that were supported by China. Mongolia was ruled by Russian puppets, who held a tight grip on the country. A large amount of civil unrest had surfacing in the form of food riots and demonstrations against the government. The was also a large amount of infiltration of the Chinese from the south of the border into the grasslands of Mongolia causing a conflict with the local inhabitants.

Mongolia had always been a bone of contention between China and Russia. Russian troops have always maintained their presence in Mongolia ever since the Russians seized Chinese lands in the Pacific in 1860, and gave Russia the port of Vladivostok. The Chinese see the recovery of these territories as an inevitable eventuality. It has been trying ever since to throw off the Russian influence in Mongolia as a stepping stone. The Chinese communist party was also accused by Chernomyrdin of carrying covert operations into the Southern cities of Russia to destabilize the civil order. Chernomyrdin was very concerned about the resurgence of the communist party in Russia and the open support that China gave to them was extremely perplexing to him.

Chernomyrdin reacted immediately. A division of Russian troops was sent in overnight and all the border crossings from the mountains were secured. He accused China of "Interfering with Mongolia," China on its part rebuffed his accusations as ‘nonsensical’. A midnight gunfight between Russian Border Patrols and Chinese paratroopers in a remote mountain post was what inflamed the whole matter. Apparently, the Chinese were carrying out a night navigation exercise in the mountains southwest of Mongolia and were ambushed by the Russian Patrol. Two Chinese soldiers were reported to have been killed and five more taken prisoners.

China reacted very angrily to the whole episode and demanded an immediate release of its citizens along with an apology. Russia responded that ‘the perpetrators who were caught deep inside Mongolian territory had been handed to the Mongolian government for it to carry out the appropriate procedure.

China started moving two of its infantry divisions up to the Mongolian border and stationed them along various passes into Mongolia. The prisoners were eventually released by Mongolia, and China withdrew its forces after intense pressure and lobbying by the United Nations and the West. However, the whole episode opened a new chapter in Russian-Chinese hostility.

The question of the nuclear weapons still remained uncertain. Russia has over twenty thousand nuclear weapons. There are constant fears in the West that these could leak out to terrorists who have a lot of dollars to offer. Dismantling operations have begun in most facilities after 1997, but full cut back is out of the question in the near future. The Red Army, which had been the most powerful in the World had been mostly demobilized between the disarmament treaties of the late 1980’s and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

After the recession subsided at the end of 1998, the Russian economy started to pick up slowly. Russia started marketing its vast pool of technology to the Third World, and began an aggressive program of modernization. The Five-year plan was on course again, and industry was picking up. Once doomed cities east of the Urals were booming once again. Agricultural production sky-rocketed after implementation of new liberal policies in marketing and procurement. In 2000, Russia had an astounding growth rate of 6.3%.

After a very uncertain and gloomy period just after the implementation of free markets, especially due to the worldwide recession, the economy picked up after investment from Europe and United States began to flow in. However, public expenditure on infrastructure and grants to companies to allow them to start healthily was very high, resulting in an alarming rate of inflation. This has cooled down in 2000-2001, and rates of interest are nominal. The overall GDP per capita is at $1600, and the economy is now performing very well at growth rates of 5-8%.

The great Red Army was dismantled after the death of USSR, and Russia has reduced its forces by a huge 60%. However, most equipment is fast becoming obsolete, and modernizing is a huge drain on the government. Russian soldiers are mostly conscripts at the lower levels, higher level officers are used to run machinery, and equipment. However, pay is very low, and the prestige factor is running out fast. Russia embarked on a massive examination, and restructuring program to make its armed forces professional and efficient in 2000. Old equipment was sold to Third World countries. New specialized capability to help police its borders was acquired.

Area: 1,960,582 sq. km. (1,176,349 mi)

Land Boundaries: total 4,415 km, Iraq 814 km, Jordan 728 km, Kuwait 222 km, Oman 676 km, Qatar 60 km, UAE 457 km, Yemen 1,458km

Cities: Capital--Riyadh (pop. 2.5 million). Other cities--Jeddah (1.6 million), Makkah, (1.5 million), Dammam/Khobar/Dhahran, (1 million).

International Disputes: large section of boundary with Yemen not defined; status of boundary with UAE not final; Kuwaiti ownership of Qaruh and Umm al Maradim islands is disputed by Saudi Arabia.

Population (2000 est.): 15 million (12.3 million Saudis, 2.7 million foreign nationals).

Annual growth rate: 2.9%

Ethnic groups: Arab (90% of native pop.), Afro-Asian (10% of native pop.).

Religion: Muslim.

Language: Arabic (official)

Health: Infant mortality rate--38/1,000. Life expectancy--male 65 years, female 68 years.

Work force: 3 million (30% foreign workers est.).

The Persian Gulf Conflict in the early nineties created tense relations in the Middle Eastern region, especially after Saudi Arabia proved to be "wholly dependent" on the Western powerhouses

most notably the United States of America which provided almost 70% of the military force in the conflict . Lines were drawn within the Arab world between the Arabian world and Iraqi supporters. Many Iraqi supporters vehemently opposed the involvement of non-Arab forces in the conflict, seeing the intrusion of western states as a clear infringement into the private affairs of the Arab world. The US involvement in the Persian Gulf was consequently seen as a threat to the Arab world’s security and their sovereignty. After the Persian Gulf crisis, Iraq remained a potential local threat. Their open desire for political and economic leadership of the Middle East presented Saudi Arabia with a constant danger of invasion. Another threat to the Saudi national security is the Islamic "Revolution" in Iran. The Hezbollah militants, as growing band Islamic extremists proclaimed themselves as the new guardians of Islamic shrines. This extremist group has openly purposed to seize the guardianship powers from the Royal family

In order to quell domestic concerns on the authority of the Saudi dynasty as well as its seemingly indestructible ties with the Western world, King Fahd set up a formal constitution defining the monarchy and set up a Council of Ministers. He also devoted both of his five year plans in the mid nineties to expanding the Saudi economy outside of the petroleum industry which linked it to the Western world. His second five-year program also concentrated on improving the domestic work force in the country, lessening its economic dependency on foreign workers.

The 1990s saw the rise of the Islamic Fundamentalist and Pan-Arab movement started in Iran throughout the Arab world. In November 1995, internal militants bombed the Saudi Arabian National Guard ( the main internal policing force) headquarters in Riyadh, and in June, 1996, fundamentalist militants bombed the main American army base in the country, killing about a 100 U.S. servicemen and civilians.

Due to the increasing hostility in the Middle Eastern region, the United States added more than one thousand servicemen to its Saudi Arabian bases at the request of the Saudi dynasty, who saw the growing Fundamentalist movement as an immediate threat to the monarchy. Militant attacks between the Muslim world and the United States rose to an all time high as groups targeted Saudi and American military operations. In late 1996, a militant group could not assassinate King Fahd, seeing him and the Saudi dynasty as the primary obstacle to a united Arab coalition. It was later discovered that the group's arms were supplied by the Iraqi government.

The American government stepped up their military presence in the country, as many foreign nationals and interests started to flee the country. Despite the increased U.S. presence, and U.N. anti-terrorism negotiations , the militants extremists staged a successful coup d'etat on February 22, 1997 which killed King Fahd. Consequently they declared martial law, and sent the Crown Prince Saudi Al Faysal into exile in nearby Kuwait. The new government, which called itself the Islamic Republic of Saudi Arabia, was supported almost unanimously by the Islamic world; notable exceptions were Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen who all felt the potential threat to their sovereignty but most importantly their national security.

Supported by the US CIA, the Saudi loyalists retook control of the government in March of 1997. Under the power of the long time Saudi loyalist, Prince Faysal was brought back from exile and pronounced the King of Saudi Arabia. The U.S. intelligence operation representatives, which played an integral part in re-establishing Saudi Arabia, has since then remained a part of the UN peacekeeping force.

Minor violent outbreaks have since occurred against the "foreign invasion". In the four years since the event, two small bases have been bombed, resulting in the deaths of 25 American soldiers, and 3 British soldiers. The new American President Colin Powell, a popular man in Saudi Arabia after the Persian Gulf Conflict in 1991, has sworn to continue American support for the Saudi dynasty. Saudi Arabia has yet to resume normal relations with Iraq and Iran since the coup.

In 1996, the oil industry was responsible for 38% of the GDP. King Fahd's sixth five year plan started in 1996, was to cut down on the kingdom's dependence on the petroleum sector of the economy (which in total added up to 75% of the GDP.) The government decided to invest in education and job training of its citizens, to counteract the presence of more than 3 million foreign nationals who comprised over 65% of the nation’s work force circa 1996.

With the growing hostility toward the large foreign presence within the country especially after the first coup d’etat, many foreigners fled the country. During the brief period of martial law within the country more than 600,000 foreign nationals left. There has been a slow return of the foreign population since the reinstatement of the Saudi dynasty due to the hostile environment in the country.

The country is heavily relying on its oil revenue which is at an all-time high despite a notable decrease in exportation due to the lack of labor. The western countries are still recovering from a minor world-wide recession that the coup d’etat triggered; especially the United States who during the martial government were virtually cut off from Saudi oil supplies for the first week of the conflict.

The implementation of King Fahd’s 5 year plan to shift the base of the nation’s export from petroleum to manufactured goods has been suspended indefinitely. Due to the withdrawal of foreign investment in the country, many operations have been canceled, causing a sudden influx of unemployment. The alarming number of unemployed citizens presents Saudi Arabia with its largest welfare problem. King Faysal is presently asking the US and the IMF to borrow the $60,000,000 needed to restore economic stability.

Since the coup in 1997, King Faysal, has committed a great deal of time and investing in building up Saudi Arabia’s military forces. He has managed to recruit a substantial number of eligible males into the army, and thereby decreasing the total number of unemployed people on welfare. The Saudi military has now increased to 210,000 in the army, 34,000 in air defense, 12,000 in the navy, and 5,000 in the National Security Agency.

Despite the push to lessen US intrusion into the Saudi military affairs, the role of the US CIA has still remained prominent if not crucial in maintaining the political stability of nation. There are now 5,000 troops stationed in Saudi Arabia for reasons of peace keeping and guarding the activities of the Iraqis. The unstable movements of the Hezbollah militants must also be carefully controlled. Their unrest has continually caused riots, violent group protests, and extreme political statements.

Land Boundaries: 4,750 km, Botswana 1,840 km, Lesotho 909 km, Mozambique 491 km, Namibia 855 km, Swaziland 430 km, Zimbabwe 225 km.

International Disputes and claims: Swaziland has asked South Africa to open negotiations to reincorporating some nearby South African Territories that are populated by ethnic Swazis or that were long ago part of the Swazi Kingdom.

arable land: 10%

permanent crops: 1%

meadows and pastures: 65%

forest and woodland: 3%

other: 21%

population: 53, 456,198 (July 1999 est.)

Net migration rate: 0.17 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2000 est.)

Ethnic Divisions: black 75.2%, white 13.6%, Colored 8.6%, Indian 2.6%

Religions: Christian (most whites and coloreds and about 60% of blacks), Hindu (60% of Indians), Muslim 2%.

Literacy: age 15 and over that can read or write (2000); total population: 76%, male: 78%, female: 75%

Labor force: 16.7 million economically active

Legal system: based on the Roman-Dutch law and English common law; accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations.

cabinet: Cabinet appointed by the Executive President.

Legislative Branch: bicameral

National Assembly: elections last held 26-29 April 1999; results- SAPP 58.9%, ANC 15.6%, NP 21.6%, PC 9.4%, FF 2.2%, DP 1.6%, PAC 1.3%.

Senate: The Senate is composed of members who are nominated by the nine provincial parliaments (which are elected in parallel with the National assembly) and has special powers to protect regional interests, including the right to limited self-determination for ethnic minorities; seats- (90 total) SAPP- 42, ANC- 20, NP- 18, FF 3, PC 5, DP 1, PAC 1.

note: when the National assembly meets in joint session with the Senate to consider the provisions of the constitution, the combined is referred to as the Constitutional Assembly.

In May 1910, the Union of South Africa was created, a self governing Dominion of the British Empire. The Union’s constitution kept all the political power in the hands of the whites. In 1912, the ANC (African National Congress) was formed. Its goals were the elimination of restrictions based on color and the enfranchisement of and parliamentary representations for blacks.

In the early 60’s, the ANC and Pan African Congress were banned after a protest in Sharpeville in which 69 protesters were killed by policemen. Nelson Mendela and many other anti-apartheid leaders were convicted and imprisoned on charges of treason. The ANC and PAC were forced underground. In May 1961, South Africa relinquished its dominion status and declared itself a republic.

Finally, popular uprisings in black and colored townships in 1976 and 1985 helped to convince some parliament members for the need for change. Secret discussions between those members and Nelson Mendela began in 1986. After long series of negotiations, a new constitution promulgated into law in December 1993. The country’s first non-racial elections were held on April 26-29, 1994, resulting in the installation of Nelson Mendela as President on May 10, 1994.

South Africa was under a transitional constitution till 1999. The constitution provided for some executive power sharing among political parties based on the proportion of the vote they received in the elections.

The South African economy experienced a boom in the Fiscal Year ending in 1997. The GDP grew a record 7%, and a huge inflow of investment was experienced, particularly from the West. Being a regional powerhouse, South Africa initiated moves towards a regional trading bloc with neighboring countries, and preliminary negotiations were held in Harare, Zimbabwe in January 1997. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho and Namibia were the participating countries. This resulted in a further round of talks where the formation of an agency to share experiences was agreed upon. However, the realization of a trading bloc was still a remote possibility as the countries could not break a stand-off over vital sectors such as Agriculture and Mining. South Africa saw the expanding African economies as prime markets for its overflowing manufacturing sector. However, the other countries were wary of South Africa’s domination, and an eventual economic control over them.

The crime rate in South African cities grew to alarming proportions. The crime rate jumped by a 37% increase between 1995 and 1997. The prosperity in the GDP levels was not reflected in a change in quality of life for the average South African black. Most of them still lived continued to live a life of poverty as peasants in the townships surrounding the major cities.

In October 1997, trouble broke out in the volatile KwaZulu-Natal province, which has a large concentration of the Zulu tribe. The Inkatha Freedom Party, the Zulu political party led by Mongesuthu Buthelezi co-opted the Zulu King, Goodwill Zwelithini (who had earlier aligned himself to the African National Congress led by Nelson Mendela) into declaring total independence for the Zulu people and the formation of the state of KwaZulu from what was KwaZulu-Natal. The streets in all the cities in that province became the scene of bloodbaths, as Zulus fought against Xhosas. President Nelson Mendela ordered martial law in the state and ordered the army to move in and take control of the situation.

A 78 hour curfew was imposed in the province before the situation became calm. The army quelled a small guerrilla group that had been formed by the IFP as an impromptu army. Mongesuthu Buthelezi escaped into Mozambique . The government issued a warrant for his arrest on the charges of treason against the State, and put up a reward for information that could lead up to his capture. The province of KwaZulu-Natal was put under the direct control of Nelson Mendela.

The death toll from the whole episode was estimated to be more than 10,000. Most of the Zulu leaders, including King Zwelithini, had gone underground. The King was later pardoned by the President and the parliament when he pledged atonement, and full allegiance to the Union 3 months later. The constitution was later amended to deem the existence of regional parties based on tribe as illegal.

With the approach of the National Elections in 1999, a big rift was beginning in the ANC. Nelson Mendela had already declared his intention to step down in 1999, and had expressed his desire for his Vice President, Thabo Mbeki to succeed him. However, Thabo Mbeki did not have grassroots support in the ANC. The Secretary General of the ANC, Cyril Ramaphosa, had also expressed his desire to run for the office. Ramaphosa had been an active member of the freedom movement from the outset, and had strong links with South African Communist party. Mbeki, on the other hand was a relative outsider who was based outside South Africa before the end of Apartheid.

In September 1998, Ramaphosa announced that he was breaking away from the ANC, and was forming his own party to contend for the March 1999 elections. Ramaphosa derived most of his support from COSATU ( the Congress of South Trade Unions ), and was banking upon the support of poor South Africans, who had not seen any change after ANC came into power from the time they were in Apartheid.

He declared that he was running on a socialist platform and would steer South Africa away from the Free Market economy that ANC had jumped towards after taking power, adding that it had only served to increase the disparity in wealth and had not benefited the majority of black South Africans.

Meanwhile, major breakthroughs had been achieved in the progress towards the Southern Africa Trade Area (SATA). Trade in technological components, most manufactured goods, and medicines had been liberalized between South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Namibia, and Lesotho. Negotiations were also underway to reduce tariffs on Agricultural goods and minerals. This had fueled a trade boom amongst the countries. South Africa got cheap raw materials from neighboring countries, and they benefited from South Africa’s comparative advantage in many of the goods that they couldn’t produce, especially in the high technology and communications sectors. South Africa played a huge role in a campaign to eradicate River Blindness in all of Southern Africa by supplying extremely cheap drugs to the other countries.

The National Elections in 1999 was a four way contest between the South African Peoples Party (SAPP) led by Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC led by Thabo Mbeki, the National Party led by Frederick DeClerk, and the Peoples Congress (a Zulu organization which claimed to be which claimed to be National based on the fact that it put up contestants in all the parts of the country) led by a newcomer called Innocent Kulelezi.

Ramaphosa emerged with a resounding victory over Mbeki.

In the following month he put into place the Social-Democratic policies to redistribute land and wealth to poor blacks. Relations between the West and South Africa started to get strained over this fundamental shift in policy. However, Ramaphosa assured that whites in South Africa will not be disadvantaged in any way.

Meanwhile, SATA (Southern Africa Trade Area), was on its way to becoming a strong economic union. Trade between the participating countries had quadrupled. Tariffs in Agricultural products had also reduced, and South Africa was the biggest beneficiary on the Trading Bloc, being able to now market its technology and superior goods to neighboring countries. SATA had really started to pick up and all the countries involved had begun to reap the benefits of the trading bloc.

Ramaphosa also started to take the lead in the OAU, and pledged to help out by contributing troops if need be. South African troops had not taken part in any external UN peacekeeping operation till date. However, due to the immense clout that South Africa had in the whole of Africa, it was rapidly beginning to assume the role of a regional superpower.

South Africa faced a slight setback in the economy when industry slumped for a short period in 2000. This was due to inflationary tendencies of the new government, which had carved out a huge government deficit while implementing huge public projects, mainly in the townships. To finance the deficit, the government had to resort to excessive borrowing from the private sector which lead to an unexpected increase in the interest rates. This served to crowd out the private sector investment.

The government also fell into a short crises when Ramaphosa declared his intentions to nationalize all the mines in South Africa, so that revenues from them could be used to finance projects that he had started but were now facing eradication due to lack of funding. According to him, "The mines have been bestowed by God, not for the exploitation by a few individuals, but by society as a whole." This caused a huge outcry in the domestic private sector and also in the international community.

He was forced to retract his words when the donor community to South Africa threatened to withdraw all aid to South Africa if he implemented this step. However Ramaphosa managed to keep very cordial relations with the West. He carried out an extensive tour of Europe and the United States in September of 2000, and came back with assurances of investment from all the countries he visited. He had extensive discussions with President Powell of the United States, where new opportunities, particularly those opened up by SATA were discussed.

The Southern Africa Trade Area, was further liberalized in 2000. Trade in most Agricultural goods with the exception of corn and wheat was liberalized. This included the trade of meats, fruits, other cereals, and even cash crops like cotton. The countries reached an agreement that allowed the exchange of selected expertise like technicians, researchers and engineers across their borders without restrictions. The economies of all the countries started to grow rapidly.

With an expected national product of $ 240.6 billion in 2000, the South African economy was booming. It survived the global depression of 1998, but careless practices, and unsound policy could become very lethal in the future. South Africa showed a very healthy National Growth Rate of 5.3% in 2000.

South Africa has the most efficient and modern Armed Forces in the Southern Hemisphere. With a Infantry of 300,000, and a Air Force of 50,000 with the latest in Air defense technology. South Africa would pose a formidable challenge any threats.

Coastline: 1,441 km

Area: 35,956 sq. km; approximately the size of West Virginia.

Retains 200 NM exclusive economic zone and 12 NM territorial sea rights.

International Disputes and Claims: The Republic of China(ROC) has been involved in a complex dispute over the Spratly Islands with China, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei. Both the ROC and Vietnam claim the Paracel Islands, but since ROC’s declaration of independence China has laid siege upon the islands with martial law imposed.

NATURAL RESOURCES:

Land:

arable land: 26%

permanent crops: 4%

meadows and pastures: 7%

forest and woodland: 42%

other: 21%

People:

Population: 26,000,052 (2000 census)

Population growth rate: 0.87%

Language: Mandarin Chinese(official), Taiwanese, Hakka.

Literacy: 91%

Work force: 13.7 million

Legal System: Civil law system; accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations.

President LEE TUNG-HUI (since January 13^th, 1988)

Vice President LI Yuan-Zu

Premier LIEN Chan

Type: Multiparty democracy

Capital: Taipei

Branches of government: Executive, Legislative, Judicial, Control, Examination.

Administrative divisions: 2 provinces(Taiwan island & Fu-chien), 16 counties on Taiwan, 5 municipalities, 2 special municipalities(Taipei & Kaohsiung).

Major political parties: Chinese Nationalist Party(KMT), Democratic Progressive Party(DPP), Chinese New Party(CNP).

The Republic of China(ROC) was originally conceived on October 10, 1911 after overthrowing the imperialist rule. In December 1949, following a civil war, the Republic retreated to the island of Taiwan, where they hence reorganized as the capital city of the nation. The Republic of China was recognized as the official Chinese government until 1979, when the United States changed its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Following the Joint Communiqué, President Carter signed the Taiwan Relations Act(TRA) into law on April 10, 1979. Following de-recognition and until October 1999, the United States terminated its Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan but, in keeping with both the TRA and with the 1982 US-PRC Joint Communiqué, has continued the sale of defensive military equipment to Taiwan. When Taiwan declared its independence on October 10, 1999, the White House issued a statement from President Powell stating "China has long tested the patience of the United States in both domestic and international relations. As a torch of freedom, it is up to the United States to make sure that no light goes dim. We shall ally with the Taiwanese, and together we shall succeed."

The independence of Taiwan had long been in minds of the Taiwanese(people on Taiwan prior to 1949), specifically the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP), which had been gaining considerable support from the islands citizens. Although President Lee had been successful in guiding the island state into economic success and political access to the majority of the world, he lost much political support from the sudden decline in jobs and sudden incline of crime resulting from the transfer of Hong Kong to China from the United Kingdom. The shift in popularity from the president and the KMT to the DPP reached its extreme two days after a poll rating for the DPP rose to 53.6% over a KMT rating of 42.7%. With the widest margins between parties ever in Taiwanese history, DPP went public in stating

"…we must face the reality that we are different…we are no longer the people of yesterday, the relics of the mainland. The voices of Taiwan have spoken, and the ears have heard. We shall rise to a new era where we are not just a island, but a nation in its full right, capacity, and glory, free from the shadow of suppression."

From the mid 1990’s, there has always been speculation as to the future of China after Deng Xiao Ping’s death. From the early 1990’s, China has been trying to revitalize its economy with limited capital enterprise. This has resulted in an influx of cash to not the central economy, but into the regional economy and into the pockets of the regional leaders. By mid 1990s, China was slowly but unknowingly decentralizing itself; as the provinces grew wealthy, Beijing’s coffers remained at a minimum. While the central government remained status quo, the regional governors and generals were gaining money and power. Still, the status quo had internal problems; Qian Qichen, Premier of China, was in bid for chairmanship with backing of the military. China was a melting pot of piranhas, each out to kill. It seemed evident to everyone outside of China that she was a tiger in slumber. In the words of Alexander Kent, Harvard Analyst, "China at this point is like a pool of water; all it needs is a small disruption and the ripples will come and grow." The disruption was the death of Deng Xiao Ping in late 1997. The tiger woke up. As expected, China fell into a bitter power struggle between the military backed regional governments and the central government in Beijing. The appointed successor, Li Peng, charged the rebel leaders as "counter-revolutionaries" which only enraged them further and prompted the military backed Qian Qichen to "sweep every vulture from its coop and pluck it to its very bone." In the weeks following Deng’s death, the regional militaries staged a coup resulting in the mass murders of the major party leaders. In the "confusion" of the persecution, Qian was murdered. Beijing became a battleground where "blood spilled freely and cries of the judged fell silent to the sound of gunfire." Only Li and members of his immediate cabinet were able to seek amnesty in Iraq possibly only by heavy bribes and promises when and if the Chinese returned to power.

With an exiled central government, the various governors on China set up a skeleton confederacy. The provincial governments established martial law. Western enterprise was courted with provisions of cheap labor and unregulated pollution levels under cover of legitimacy to ensure company credibility. The sale of arms was furthered with record sales to middle and southeast Asian countries. "China, when under control was out of control. Now out of control, China has gone mad." The want of power became a will, and within weeks, provinces were fighting amongst themselves for absolute leadership on the mainland.

In the wake of internal confusion in China and with the highest DPP popularity in years, factions in the National Assembly began to formulate the possibility of independence. In the months preceding the vote, Taiwan began increasing military reserves and equipment from purchases in both the United States and France. In late 1997 alone, the United States gave its approval for Taiwan to purchase a record 40 F-16 fighter jets for immediate delivery. China, now in a state of confusion, could not forcefully advocate against the sales as it had internal problems which could again capitulate at a moments notice. The sale of arms raised global suspicions as to the underlying goals of both the US and Taiwan only after two months since the US awarded the Republic of China MFN status. "They[China] have tested our limits, and we are responding…unfavorably."

With an overwhelming popularity in the Assembly, the DPP then went to President Lee, the last bastion of the KMT, with the proposal of independence. After ten days of negotiations, Lee conceded in an agreement in which Taiwan would declare her independence with provisions for reunification with the mainland at Taiwan’s discretion. In a face of bitterness and a voice of solemnity, Lee stated after the final meeting

"there are certain truths of which I have tried to uphold. I look in the mirror and what looks back is Chinese. My skin is yellow, and my eyes are black. However, we are a nation loyal to principles that are alienated by the mainland. Let us therefore seek comfort in our internal commonality of freedom and declare our rightful independence."

On October 10, 1999, the National Assembly successfully voted and declared the independence of the Republic of China by a margin of 155 yea in a caucus of 299. The days prior to the voting were thundered by light shelling from a battalion of the new People’s Army of Fu-Chien. In Taiwan, as the day of voting approached, the people were anxious yet not without doubt as to the ramifications of the vote regardless of the outcome. Days leading into the vote were shadowed by extreme fluctuations in not only the Taiwanese Stock Market, but in trade floors throughout the globe. However, after declaring its independence from China, Taiwan went into a position from courting countries to being courted by the international community.

Here was the key. President Lee was able to maneuver into a bargaining position. He was able to secure a relatively bloodless independence and orchestrate international support for his cause. Once General Tse in China succeeded in his coup of 1998, PLA regional militant discord lessened. He was able to draw a mighty reign on the military establishment and much like Nasser and Sadat of Egypt, he received initial support from the people for his ability to make order out of the chaos and the anarchy that persisted in China.

Prior to 1999, Taiwan has been petitioning the UN for admission. However, without the full support of the Security Council, admission was impossible, even at an observatory level. With the defacto government in exile, the UN representative from China became powerless. The exiled government realized that the only way for them to return to power was with full global support. However, the international community was now at the full backing of Taiwan.

For weeks, Li Peng sought the support of the international community for his government in exile. Nevertheless, he was unable to secure anything of the like. It was motioned to him that should he consider Taiwan’s declaration of independence acceptable, then he may be able to drum up some support. Prime Minister Blair of the UK expressed the same desire for the ROC as had the Japanese; but, Li Peng would not budge. Following the death of Bhoutros-Bhoutros Ghali, Acting Secretary-General Oscar Arias visited Li Peng, but was harshly received. For a leader seeking the support of the world, he was defying any concessions that could secure his return. But General Tse in Beijing was more tactful. In an effort to secure recognition for his government, he announced his backing of this independence as long as an economic treaty of guarantee could be signed. Taiwan realized that this was essential for marketing and initiated the steps necessary for said treaty. Thus, the Chinese government of General Tse was recognized by the United States and the United Kingdom. This "gesture of cooperation to the new world order" was a symbol of "a new era of co-existence in peaceful terms with our neighbors" according to a spokesman for General Tse at the Treaty signature in Taipei. Even so, military uneasiness continues in the area, although ironically enough both Chain and Taiwan need each other as trading partners. It is an interesting arrangement to say the least.

President Lee has traveled extensively around the globe to secure trading rights, but nay are hesitant to partake of this opportunity, largely because of the fear of a resurgent Chinese military and the uncertainty looming over the ability of General Tse to lead over a billion people. Taiwan is enjoying a very uneasy freedom. Aside from these problems, Taiwan is engaged in a Most Favored nation agreement with most permanent members of the security council which has made things easier for Lee. Plans are underway for talks between Japan and Taiwan that could lead to a treaty of defense, although Western and East Asian scholars doubt that respective constituent citizens will be amenable to such an alliance. Still, in such a volatile time, President Lee and Prime Minister Hashimoto may be forced to come together to pool their valuable military and policing forces to secure navigable sea-routes for trade.

Economics:

Taiwan has had a dynamic capitalist economy with considerable government guidance of investment and foreign trade. Up until 2000, real growth in GNP has averaged about 14% a year during the past four decades. Export growth has been even faster and has provided the impetus for industrialization. Agriculture contributes to about 6% to GDP, up from 4% in 1996. Currently ranked as number 8 in major trading countries, Taiwan has, in recent years, become a formidable economic threat to Japan. Having been a major investor in China, Japan, the United States, as well as the ASEAN states, Taiwan has turned from one of the four little dragons to a large predator on the prowl. The only downside to Taiwan’s increasing economy was the influx of refugees from Hong Kong in the aftermath of its China takeover. However, after an increase of 6% in unemployment, Taiwan’s economy had steadily increased until the light bombings from China.

Currently, the threat of a Chinese siege on Taiwan has caused the island nation to go into an economic tailspin. The stock market in Taiwan dropped over 1000 points after the initial bombing, and has steadily decreased since. The only upturn was when there was rumor that the United Nations and the United States would provide military support in reinstating the government. As a result of the stock market plunge in Taiwan, markets all over the globe have been hit with a domino effect, declining in all areas of trade with the island state.

Successful petition and admission to the UN has allowed Taiwan global recognition as the power they were before 1979. The influence of the Taiwanese on not only the stock market floor but on the floor of the UN has made its presence known. Since its admission to the UN, Taiwan has also been lucky enough to vbe selected by lottery for the inagural Security Council.

Defense:

Taiwan has always maintained a strong military establishment. Its primary mission was the defense of Taiwan which was predominantly from the PRC. Since its original derecognition from the UN and US, Taiwan has consistently been subsidized in military technology, primarily in aviation technology, from the US, in concordance with the TRA.

Branches: Army, Navy(including Marines), Air Force, Coastal Patrol and Defense Command, Armed Forces Reserve Command, Military Police Command.

Manpower availability: males age 15-49: 3,085,253, males fit for service: 1,793,708.

Defense expenditures: exchange rate conversion - $ 13.7 billion(2000).

Land Boundaries: Belarus 891 km, Hungary 103 km, Moldova 939 km, Poland 428 km, Romania 531 km, Russia 1,576 km, Slovakia 90 km.

cropland 56%

permanent pasture 14%

other (mostly urban) 30%

Coastline (miles) 1,729

Land Borders (miles) 2,832

total area 603,700 square km

land area 603,700 square km

Note: strategic position at the crossroads between Europe and Asia; second largest country in Europe

Population: 53,846,958 (July 2000 census.)

Population growth rate: 0.08% (2000 census.)

Birth rate: 12.34 births/1,000 population (2000 census.)

Death rate: 12.6 deaths/1,000 population (2000 census.)

Ethnic Divisions: Ukrainian 72.7 , Russian 22.1, Jewish 0.9 , Belarussian 0.9, Moldovan 0.6, Bulgarian 0.5, Polish 0.4, Hungarian 0.3, Romanian 0.3, Greek 0.2, Tatar 0.2, Roma (Gypsy) 0.1, Crimean Tatar 0.1, Armenian 0.1, Others 0.7.

Legal System: Constitution: using 1978 pre-independence constitution; new constitution currently being drafted. Form of government: unitary multiparty republic with a single legislative body (Supreme Council [450]).

chief of state and head of government

National Security Advisor: Dmytro Chernenko

Secretary of State: Mykola Biloblotsky

Secretary of Defense: Oleksander Kuzmuk

In 2000 elections major parties were:

CPU

Communist Party

Rukh

Democtratic Party.

The Ukraine is the third largest country to have formed form the republics of the former Soviet Union. With a breakup of the USSR and formation of Ukraine as an independent country, it was faced with a number of interesting problems that it seemed its people and government were prepared to solve successfully. However, by the time present rolled around, its economic growth has slowed, and its populace was largely unhappy with rising inflation and unanswered problems concerning their future with Russia and also from the political structure to the environment.

President Viktor Pynzenyk was elected in the year 2000 on the platform of sweeping economical reforms and wrestling inflation under control. While he was rather successful in both of these endeavors, he was facing increasing pressure on both domestic and international fronts. His key proposal of creating a unified economical zone with Belarus met with enthusiasm by the voters in 1999 debates; however, practical implementation of this idea stalled for months due to disorginization and crafty political maneuvers by the Ukrainian politicos against this.

At first glance, such an idea goes against every grain of a Ukrainian nationalist, of whom there are plenty. But at closer inspection, this idea was not without merit. In order to quell such nationalistic uprisings, Pynzenyk created a committee based in Kiev University to study the problem from an ethnic standpoint. The committee cheerfully concluded that for all intents and purposes, Belarussians were descendants of tribes that were part of the "Kiev Rus" in the 7^th -9^th centuries, and as such are ethnically Ukrainian. Initially, the idea was thought absurd, hover, through propaganda schemes this idea took flight, building itself on feelings of panslavism and national pride Ukraine had kept through centuries of subjection to other governments.

While helping to keep nationalist and chauvinist parties at bay, this decision created controversy among Belarussians, as well as among significant Russian and Polish minorities residing in both countries. Pynzenyk’s top aides toiled furiously trying to contain all interested parties while pitching the idea to both Ukrainians and Belarus. It certainly made sense economically, they argued, to unite both economies. Afraid for their positions, they failed to reveal the dire need Ukraine needed in bonding with another industrial country. At the same time, Belarussian officials pretended to be coolly disinterested as unemployment and inflation soared, and production and income dwindled.

President Pynzenyk stated: " the unified economies can only help our nation to leap forward. The European Community and our Russian neighbors have sought other avenues to increase our stability as well but this unification will ensure that our economic growth will not wane as we draw further economic investment from abroad. To be sure, our 1998 accord with Russia, Kazahkstan, and Belarus has been beneficial; however, we can make our economy even more competitive in industry. Let us the take this chance!"

Many opponents pointed out man flaws in the agreement, but even they had to admit that economics of it, at least, were pretty sound. The Ukraine’s economy was built almost entirely on the idea of providing raw resources for many factories of the Soviet Union, mostly located in Russia or some other republic. The Creation of the CIS was thought to help in exactly such a situation, but with inflation, the Ukraine practically gave its products away in return for gas and oil from Russia. Ukraine is very rich in mineral resources, is perfectly suited for agriculture; yet it needed more factories to capitalize on this advantages given to it by nature. Belarus, on the other hand has a great industrial base, capped by tractor and automobile factories in Minsk. Unlike Ukraine though, Belarus has very little in the way of mineral wealth and is in dire need of such resources like coal, of which Ukraine has in abundance, to keep its factories going and heat its houses. It also uniquely unsuitable for cultivating anything other than beats and potatoes in sufficient amounts. Too much of its space is just a bit too cold and wet for wheat or corn. Adding insult to injury, a big part of its fertile southern part was laid uninhabitable by the Chernobyl disaster of 1986.

In short, both countries are ideally suited for unification, if it were not for external pressure. Poland, claiming closer ties with Belarussian people offered to help Belarus in much the same way as Ukraine did. Some of the Polish extremists in all three countries started talking of "Rech Pospolita" uniting again.

On the international front Ukraine’s position is also rather ambiguous. It is not really recognized as one of the developed countries, yet it definitely does not belong to 3^rd World or Developing countries categories. It has a mature infrastructure and manufacturing capability greater than that of most European countries. It also possesses one of the best educational systems in the world and a well educated workforce. It also has all of the problems of developing countries such as inflation, unemployment, pollution, and crime.

Its strategic position in Europe is central to any military operations. It has key ports on the Black Sea, particularly Sevastopol. Moreover, Ukraine possesses as much nuclear weaponry and any other country, with the exception of the US, Russia, and perhaps China. It is impossible to discount that when thinking of Ukraine as a country. Even though these weapons are officially under control of a separate organization that transcends national boundaries and includes all of the former Soviet Union, lax security and nationalistic tendencies exhibited by many Ukrainians give cause for concern of safety of this weapons. Its Black Sea Fleet, once pride of the Soviet Navy, is one of the most powerful in the world, and is a formidable threat even after being divided between Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia.

Over the course of recent months, President Powell met with President Pynzenyk and President Chernomyrdin to discuss further an end to any further build-up of nukes. Even so, the Ukrainians were only willing to submit to bi-annual inspections but not to reconsider their stand on nuclear weaponry in light of the much more volatile regions of the former USSR republics. Clearly, direct threats do not exist, however, the Ukraine is struggling to become a major player in eastern Europe and any loss of military power can only detract from that resolve.

Still, all three Presidents agreed to institute inspections of weapons as a counter-measure to the seemingly lax protocols for safety of the weapons. As a further development of the Partnership for Peace of the NATO wing, they decided to continue performing military excursuses in an effort to incorporate their militaries to the task of rapid response forces in the region, particularly to be used in the middle east and former USSR republics.

Recently, a Ukrainian division assisted with brokering a cease-fire along in Cyprus as part of a peace keeping operation that simulated the use of rapid response forces. It was commended for its integration of NATO universal protocols.

In his bid to unify the country President Pynzenyk has found it difficult to pacify and unite all the diverse population elements. Crisis after crisis are erupting along ethnic boundaries. He environment is just another headache for the government, but it is a very serious problem for the population of the Pripyat region. While Belarus suffered much of the Chernobyl destruction, Ukraine still has had more than enough. Shut down plans for the three remaining reactors were finally approved (more than 10 years later) when the #2 reactor exploded in Feb. 1998. Even though massive destruction was prevented, wind carried radioactive materials over a semicircle of over 100 miles (mostly over Ukraine this time).

Mass protests were staged by Ukrainians in response to a seemingly out-of-hand situation arising out of the nuclear power plant disaster. It is still not known the extent to which radioactive winds will damage the health of the population, but it is fairly certain according to scientists of the area that a great deal of people will develop forms of cancer and other related diseases. With this, the people are clamoring for increased health services. Presently, Pynzenyk is undertaking a budgetary overhaul to provide for an extensive study of the effects of this disaster. This increased his popularity in many regions of the Ukraine.

Pynzenyk stands to make crucial decisions that will make Ukraine-Belarus one of the major players on the world arena; however, military and environmental concerns are eating away at his once large popularity and two attempts at assassination and one heart surgery make it hard for him to continue running his policy as efficiently as he would like.

Land: 244,111 sq. km.

International Disputes and Claims: The United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland signed the Anglo-Irish agreement to diminish the divisions in Northern Ireland and to achieve peace and stability. In the agreement, both governments affirm that any change in Northern Ireland’s status will come about only with the consent of a majority of its people. An intergovernmental conference was established to deal with political, security, legal, and cross-border cooperation issues and provides for possible future devolution of responsibility for some matters within Northern Ireland. In 1997, the United Kingdom released its hold in Hong Kong which was given back to the Republic of China. A British joint committee was formed to help assimilate the island back into the recognized government of China.

arable land: 30%

meadows and pastures: 50%

waste or urban: 15%

forest and woodland: 13%

inland water: 2%

Population: 62,346,217

Ethnic groups: British, West Indian, South Asian.

Religions: Church of England, Roman Catholic, Presbyterian

Languages: English, Welsh, Gaelic

Labor Force: 31.4 million

Legal System: Partly statutes, partly common law, practice, and "traditional rights." Accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations.

Branches of Government: Executive—monarch (chief of state), prime minister (head of government), cabinet. Legislative—bicameral parliament: House of commons, House of Lords. Judicial—magistrates’ courts, county courts.

Principal Government Officials:

Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs—Malcolm Rifkind

Ambassador to the UN—

Political Parties: Conservative; Labour, Liberal Democrats, and various smaller parties including the Greens and parties of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

In the summer of 1996 Prime Minister John Major resigned as the leader of the ruling Conservative Party (Tories), and declared that he would be a candidate in the new leadership election. He resigned hoping to make skeptics within his party evaluate their political clout. It was a political gamble of enormous proportions, bringing forth headlines such as "Who says he’s got no balls?" and "Major’s Suicide Note.". On the one hand, if he won in the new leadership election to follow, he would definitely lead the Tory party into the next general election., but if he lost he would have to resign as Prime Minister. Out of the 327 Tories that voted only 75 voted for Major, while the large majority (162) voted for Michael Portillo a moderate Euro-skeptic. So two weeks later on November 19, John Major resigned as Prime Minister. The result was a weak Conservative Party, which had already lost 537 seats in the previous general election, with a young untried leader. It became impossible for Portillo to hold his part together long enough to rally for the next general election.

In the general election that followed in early 1997, the Labour Party won a majority of the House of Commons seats. The Labour party had been leading in the opinion polls after undergoing a transformation which included abandoning unilateral nuclear disarmament and nationalization, and a development of more moderate policies on social and economic issues. It was the first time since 1979 that they held majority in the most powerful legislative house. They wasted no time in naming Tony Blair as their leader and new Prime Minister. The Labour party had been leading in the opinion polls after undergoing a transformation which included abandoning unilateral nuclear disarmament and nationalization, and a development of more moderate policies on social and economic issues. The young and charismatic Tony Blair was considered the future of the United Kingdom as his 62% approval rating prior to the election indicated. It was rumored that even long time conservative Margaret Thatcher was quoted as saying Blair was "impressive." The Conservative Party gained a new leader in Michael Portillo who was skeptical of the United Kingdom’s commitment to the European Union. The Parliament was divided among those who thought that the United Kingdom needed to expand their influence within the European Union and the rest of the world, and those who felt that the United Kingdom needed to be more independent and not give in to the conformity of such an organization. Blair led the former party and stated he intended to, "… make use of the vast resources, economic and human, to take a positive and leading role instead of standing along the sidelines."

The new Prime Minister had arrived at critical juncture in the future of the United Kingdom. There was much debate as to the extent of involvement the United Kingdom should put into the new European Union: both economically and politically. Blair begins by announcing his intention to work together with the EU to utilize a common currency. In May of 1997, he took a monumental step by signing the Social Chapter giving United Kingdom workers the same benefits as those among all the other European countries within the EU. "This is just the first step in our journey to becoming a positive force within the European Union." After the signing, Blair’s popularity rose almost 9%, as left wing Conservatives and Liberal Democrats supported his actions.

Until suspended in March 1972, Northern Ireland—with the British Government retaining ultimate responsibility—had its own parliament and prime minister. In response to deteriorating security and political conditions in the province, direct rule from London was established through a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. As per the Anglo-Irish agreement to create peace and stability in Northern Ireland a census was held and Northern Ireland’s constitutional status has remained unchanged. With a new Prime Minister, several terrorist groups (most notably the IRA) increased their activity in London during 1997-1999, and its most recent action was a direct attack upon the Royal Family itself (see below). In total, the terrorist activity within these years has resulted in the deaths of 326 civilians, and 2.7 million dollars in damages to national landmarks (including Big Ben). The IRA publicly announced the end of the unconditional cease fire that was established in 1994. Gerry Adams, the President of Sinn Fein (the political wing of the IRA) has not been quoted or seen since the attack upon the Royal Family. The British intelligence agencies (MI5, MI6) have found evidence to support the theory that the Sinn Fein has been dissolved because of internal conflicts within the Irish Republican Army, and it is theorized that Adams was ousted of power and his whereabouts are still unknown. Therefore, the IRA has divided into numerous splinter groups, with various factions fighting for leadership and committing acts of terrorism to gain support. Prime Minister Blair has stated that the United Kingdom no longer recognizes the Sinn Fein as a political party because of the recent acts of violence.

In late 1998, Queen Elizabeth II died of natural causes, and Prince Charles was named the Chief of State and became King Charles. His scandalous divorce with former Princess Diana in 1996 made his ascension to the throne uneventful at best. His latest approval rating taken from a poll in 1999 was a mediocre 29%. The majority of British media questioned his representation of the United Kingdom, calling his integrity into question. A terrorist attack on his summer home in June of 1999, and the resulting injuries (broken ribs, and a second degree burn that has left a scar along his jaw) have swayed the public in his favor, when it was discovered that he had suffered the injuries after trying to defend his son, Prince William.

Soon after the attack, King Charles refused to cut back on public appearances and made it a point to announce his unwillingness to be intimidated. He used the attack as his stepping stone towards making the monarchy again more involved with the government. King Charles asked the House of Commons to allocate more funds and manpower to the fight against terrorism, citing the rise in terrorist activities worldwide the year before and ending by stating, "I implore you not only to consider the updated budget proposal, but to pass it unanimously. I can’t think of any reason why 650 intelligent government officials would turn their backs on the innocent lives at stake." The King was given a standing ovation and resounding cheers. While the budget proposal that was sent to the floor was not passed unanimously, it had passed with a overwhelming majority of 612 to 30.

This increase in terrorist activity seemed aimed at gauging the new Prime Minister’s resolve. Blair was unequivocal in his statement condemning the acts of terrorism, and while King Charles had helped push a law giving more funding and manpower to anti-terrorism, Blair decided to take it to an international scope. So, in December of 1999, Prime Minister Blair made a proposal to the European Union to fund an international anti-terrorist unit with the United Kingdom playing a critical role in the formation and coordination. His using the position of Prime Minister to address terrorism internationally seemed to set a precedent for the new role of the monarchy with King Charles. It became clear within the year to come that King Charles was more outspoken on subjects that were almost completely internal to the United Kingdom. Thus, it is now accepted that the King Charles will become more involved in internal British matters.

In line with his vision of a more involved United Kingdom, Blair also was able to sign a bill in February of 1998 to up military expenditures by over 15%. Previously, the Conservative Party (Tories) had cut the military budget resulting in 340,000 lost jobs since the 1980’s. Blair has also allocated more of its budget within the military to support of the NATO Western European Union, and expressed his willingness to help finance a standing rapid response force within the United Kingdom. The House of Commons only marginally passed this decision by a majority vote of 17, clearly representing the fear of spending too much of the country’s finances outside of its own internal affairs. In conjunction with this additional military actions, Blair has asked cooperation from the rest of the EU to support further measures of mutual, balanced and verifiable reductions in nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons worldwide. It is speculated that an updated Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty will be introduced in the near future.

The beefing up of the United Kingdom’s military power was widely supported when Blair utilized it to catapult the United Kingdom as the new front runner in peacekeeping within Western Europe. Ever since the Security Council recognized the sovereignty of Cyprus the southern portion of the island in the Mediterranean Sea, skirmishes broke out along the Cyprus and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) border. Cyprus has been petitioning to enter the EU since 1990 and have the support of the Greek government, while Turkey another member of the EU supports the TRNC. Turkey threatened to annex TRNC if Cyprus was allowed membership, and caused an escalation of military action in the late 1990’s. Blair used the new finances allocated to the military to enter in joint venture with President Colin Powell and the United States and was able to secure a military cease-fire in June of 2000.

On the international scale, the economy which was reeling from the largest recession in recent history was further setback by the loss of Hong Kong. China has found it increasingly difficult to incorporate the economy of the island into its large scale national plans. The political coup d’etat left the United Kingdom with some negotiating power. Hoping to convince the government in Beijing to more moderate policies on the Hong Kong issue, the United Kingdom recognizes the government that emerged from the coup and offers to aid in its United Nations recognition. Additionally, in the fall of 1999 Blair appointed a committee to work with Chinese officials to help oversee the integration. This was done in hopes of increasing trade and diplomatic relations with the Communist power. Yet, it seems that the act of aiding The Republic of China has many worried and has yet to show any beneficial results.

On the issue of the common European currency, Tony Blair has received extensive criticism largely due to the recession in ‘98. Recent upturns in the stock-exchange have, nevertheless, begun to impress economists and it is possible that economic agreements amongst the G-15 may yet save the currency. Even so, Germany remains angered by the "use" of its mark as a seeming standard of the Euro.

Land Boundaries: 12,248 km, Canada and Quebec (includes 2, 477 km with Alaska), Cuba 29km (US Naval Base at Gunatanamo Bay), Mexico 3,326 km.

Retains 200 nm exclusive economic zone and 12 nm territorial sea rights.

International Disputes and Claims: The US has maritime disputes with both Canada and Quebec. Although Guantanamo Bay Base is secured under lease from Cuba and the US has retained the right to terminate the lease at it’s discretion, Cuban outcries have made the lease agreement even more fragile. The recent bombing by anonymous terrorists of the base in 1998 have made the presence of the USS Georgia a necessity. These events had made the prospect of mutual agreement to terminate the lease a mere fantasy. Cuba then petitioned the International Court of Justice for assistance in seeking termination of the lease agreement. The ICJ found in favor of Cuba and instructed the United States to abandon Guantanamo Bay on November 1, 2001. Finally, the US still retains claims rights to Antarctica, although no formal claim has been made.

Land:

arable land: 19%

meadows and pastures: 18%

forest and woodland: 30%

other: 32%

irrigated land: 200, 000 sq. km (1999 estimate)

Population: 274, 666, 159 (2000 Census)

Net migration rate: 3.07 immigrants/1,000 population

Ethnic divisions: white 75.7%, Black 13%, Hispanic 5%, Asian 3.5%, Native American 0.8% (2000)

Religions: Protestant 52%, Roman Catholic 26%, Jewish 2%, other 5%, none 15% (2000)

Labor force: 135.782 million

Legal System: Common Law and Trial practices. Also has stipulated that it accepts compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, with reservations. Even so, since 1999, it has violated a directive of the UN International Court of Justice.

2000 Election Results-- POWELL: 54.2%, Albert GORE, Jr.: 46.6%, other 0.2%.

White House Chief of Staff: William Kristol

Secretary of State: Frank Carlucci

Secretary of Defense: Richard Armitage

National Security Advisor: Dr. Christian Harth

Congressional Seats:

Republican: senate, 51--house of representatives, 222 (as of 2000 elections)

Democrat: senate, 49--house of representatives, 213 (as of 2000 elections)

A seemingly revolutionary Republican party caved into itself under the leadership of Speaker Newt Gingrich. In the months immediately preceding the 1996 Presidential elections, the Republican led Congress was losing its luster and appeal. Even when Clinton and Gingrich faced a furlough because of the budget bill stand-off, the Clinton administration emerged victorious if not vindicated.

No longer able to draw popular support for its right wing policies, the Republican party nominated former Senator Bob Dole while balancing the ticket with the moderate and much more charismatic Jack Kemp. After a lengthy stall, Ross Perot, founder of the Reform Party, became its nominee as well. This time around he was unable to stir the American populace that once gave him considerable leverage for his corporate minded schemes to revamp the nation's economy. Even so, pollsters were causing headaches for the Clintons as the numbers showed that it was possible for political mudslinging to take its toll. Nevertheless, President Clinton was able to secure his re-election. Surprisingly however, Clinton’s coat-tails were not able to dismount the Republican majority on the hill, despite the fact that President Clinton won by a larger majority than in 1996.

Only three months after his second inauguration, President Clinton faced a major crises internally. The Presidency had always required the ability to muster military responses quickly and effectively abroad. However, Clinton was put to the test when a series of internal terrorist attacks swept the east coast. In March of 1997, following a series of terrorist strikes in Jerusalem, Tel-Aviv and Hebron, the United States had sold some 45 F-16 fighter jets to Israel in an effort to modernize their air defense system with modern navigational systems and targeting mechanisms. Hezbollah militants responded to the sale of said jets by mounting a severe terrorist attack on American soil, usually loaded with leaflets to tell the tale. However, this time many of these attacks were limited to commuter train stations, buses, and at times even at concerts or sporting events. No longer did the terrorists strike Americans at major government offices or at world events. Instead they targeted areas that would foment fear and an ever-increasing uneasiness about leading a routine life oblivious to the wants of Islamic fundamentalists. The CIA, FBI and other counter-terrorist branches were dispatched to be on full alert until further notice.

Nevertheless, the government and the efforts it initiated to counter the terrorist attacks were largely ineffective. The message was clear. The Hezbollah militants, driven by the millennial mindset of momentous change, were telling the west to cease its involvement in the middle east, particularly with Israel. The middle east was a tense region once more following massive surgical strikes carried out by American and Israeli pilots. The nation was debating whether it could truly mount an offensive against the Hezbollah and other individually driven radicals. It was no secret that Iran, Lebanon, Libya and some former Soviet Republics were training grounds for Islamic radicals ready to sacrifice their lives merely to spite the "Great Satan" that was America.

Finally, President Clinton asked for the patience and understanding of a bewildered nation unaccustomed to the hardships of militant hysteria and discord. For the first time in recent years, America’s national guard was called up to "defend" its soil. At the very least they were called to action in order to ease tension and avert greater catastrophes. They were directed by President Clinton under the advice of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to be stationed at most Federal Buildings and sporting events. By December of 1997, the bulk of the attacks had softened. But this came at a great cost for Americans-- 428 deaths and 1,267 injuries. Islamic fundamentalists were rapidly stirring up their brethren to stand up and fight. Undoubtedly, the militants had attained some success by their standards, regardless of the fact that their major training installations were destroyed by Israeli fighters. Sports Illustrated, an American Sports magazine reported in August of 1997 that attendance at baseball, soccer, golf, and tennis events had fewer people in attendance that season than in the past twenty-five years--a marked decline at 32%. Mass transportation usage decreased by 10% over this period according to a fiscal year report of the Department of Transportation. The FAA declared that consumer spending on domestic flights, despite a price war, had decreased by 9%. Americans were becoming weary. These were only some of the responses effected by the bombings.

Terrorism was once easily curbed when counter-intelligence and the like were involved. Still 1997 witnessed the onslaught of the fundamentalist front. Americans were forced to face safety issues largely ignored before. When the United States was able to decipher some information from those few that were captured they launched and incredible surgical strike on Lebanese soil that lasted three hours on the night of October 6, 1997. The United States did not receive much support from the United Nations or the world. The United States could not garner the necessary support from the security council, particularly because they wanted more than sanctions. President Clinton wanted a military response. So did the American populace. Many saw this intense bombardment as a direct infringement on the rights of the Lebanese people, particularly in light of the fact that many civilians were killed. It was "a radical response for a very radical series of events" said President Clinton during his 1998 State of the Union Address, "but if the Lebanese government heeded the warning that we gave, if they did not permit 428 deaths because their lack of cooperation, then hundreds would be alive and we would turn a deaf ear to their defiance. But this is not what history will record. They chose a course. They chose their alliances. They chose to lend the United States a deaf ear and so we were FORCED to speak up!" Despite the radical response, Americans considered it an adequate one. His audience was standing for the better part of four minutes in applause for the military strikes. N President Clinton’s approval rating was in the high seventies for close to two months in 1998. Moreover, terrorist attacks did not occur throughout the remainder of his administration.

As the middle east stirred up an American response by August of 1997, so too did the situation in the Taiwan Straits and particularly in Hong Kong require US military presence in the area to be enlarged. After the death of Deng Xiao Ping of China in December of 1997 and the subsequent succession struggle, the United States had to reconsider its decision to markedly lessen US militarization in the zone. By now of course, the first Japanese frigate began to join the American doing its part according to the agreement reached on June 23, 1997 . Together, their presence helped ease the crises erupting with riots and protests in Hong Kong and Beijing as a result of the communist take-over of Hong Kong.

The exodus of people from Hong Kong to Taiwan forced deeper issues to be resolved concerning Unite States foreign policy. Adding to the difficulty of the situation were the problems that the ASEAN members were unable to resolve. It was no secret that the escalating skirmishes taking place in East Timor and the air of rebellion and protest brought forth by recent events in China were stirring up laden problems. The ASEAN continued to press its new security body for a resolution or mediation. Still, little happened since Indonesia possessed a leading role in the area. It’s "internal struggle" was cause for concern since it encouraged Islamic Fundamentalists to fight back once again. Secretary of State Warren Christopher shuttled around the area a great deal along with his deputy Winston Lord. Together they indicated that the United States was committed to safeguarding the economic development of the area. They would remain in the region to keep the waters safe for passage. Even so, added security measures in that area and the Gulf made for rising oil prices and the stock market responded just as negatively as well.

The PLA continued to mount war games along the Chinese eastern seaboard. Decrying United States concern about the exercises, the PLA continued to perform routinely. When Deng Xiao Ping died, and following the military coup, the United States was able to exert incredible pressure to recognize the new government. Along with Japanese and Russian attempts to stall recognition of General Tse’s government, the United States was able to mount enough political and military pressure to help Taiwan secure its independence by 1999. Even so, Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China maintained a strong economic partnership. Furthermore, this forced the issue concerning the restructuring of the Security Council to become a more immediate issue of discussion.

Recent skirmishes along the Indian/Chinese and Russian/Chinese borders were yet another impetus for bringing about Security Council reform. The post-cold world war era did not have room for an ineffective Security Council. The permanent members were themselves involved in struggles that plagued their ability to mount the peacekeeping missions so desperately in need. But even worse, the recent chain of events made negotiations difficult. Many of the countries involved such as Russia, the Ukraine, and the United States refused to comply with ICJ decisions bearing directly upon them. President Clinton received enormous support for his refusal to impose an ICJ sanctioned directive in January of 1999 stating that "the United States, having continually trespassed into Cuban territorial sea boundaries has infringed upon the sovereignty of Cuba. No tangible evidence has been found to incriminate the Cuban government or military in the 1998 bombing of the site at Guantanamo Bay. Those responsible have claimed that the government had no involvement and that they proceeded of their own free will." Furthermore, the ICJ noted that "the recent negotiations to end the lease of Guantanamo Bay from Cuba by mutual consent have been set back by events out of the control of the Cuban government but for which it is being held accountable. The United States is directed to engage in these discussions once more in good will. Failure to do so by March 30, 2000 will be considered consent for termination of the lease agreement. In the event of said consent, the United States will vacate the premises by November 1, 2001." According to President Powell, the United States will continue its presence at the base. He concurred with the past administration that the decision was beyond the scope of ICJ powers and that although the United States normally would accept its decision, present circumstances warranted a different course.

The situation in Saudi Arabia on February 22, 1997 was certainly foremost on many minds. The assassination of King Fahd by Islamic fundamentalists apparently sanctioned by Pakistan or Iran, forced President Clinton to cancel his visit to the middle east. As events became clearer, President Clinton explained, it was found that mass looting and a military coup had removed King Fahd from his palace. Hundreds went to the streets invigorated for what promised to be an end to the monarchy. Prince Faysal fled to Kuwait where he kept a government in exile. The fates of many in his family were yet undetermined, but many other had fled to neighboring states as well. Prince Faysal asked the international community for help in establishing a government in exile. Still, the coup was obviously a successful one and had been well planned. The United States was not willing, along with the UN to recognize this government. In Kuwait, Prince Faysal prepared a takeover. Helped by loyal troops along with divisions unwilling to submit, and by CIA covert activities he was able to coordinate a counter-coup within two weeks. At this time, missiles apparently dispatched from Iran brought ships in the Strait of Hormuz to a halt, as if to distract the Prince. Even so, he was successful. The UN and the United States immediately recognized the Kingdom once again. All of this played havoc with oil prices however. As the world’s leading oil producer, it struck a chord of weakness in many superpower governments throughout 1998 and once again middle eastern oil controlled policy for months.

Americans found themselves thrust into a foreign policy dictated by militarization and defense once again. During 1999, as candidates were presenting themselves in all three parties for President, the issue of drug trade took the fore. In the latter half of the decade, heroine and cocaine usage increased by some 7% despite the efforts of the Colombian government to curtail production. Also, the United States was forced to wave the big stick once again in recent years and this carried large responsibility for a commander-in-chief. Despite the prior objection of Alma Powell, Colin Powell was able to persuade his wife to follow what he considered to be a call for stewardship. So on January 14, 2000, Powell began his bid for the Republican nomination. Americans were again beaming over him. But it would be a hard fight. After all, President Clinton had a favorable term, at least in perception. By early June, it was clear that Powell would win the nomination. Searching for a running mate he chose the powerful Republican Governor of Illinois, Jim Edgar. This would help his bid to secure both the nomination and to bring some traditionally democratic electoral votes to his side. Democrats centered on Al Gore as the de-facto candidate and nominated him with Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware as his running mate.

As the moderate Republican, with a firm but fair three-term governor by his side, Powell dazzled Americans during the 2000 debates, much as he did during his speech at the 1996 Republican National Convention. But the polls were unable to predict a winner decisively and both candidates expected a win up until election night. Some last minute endorsements by Jesse Jackson for Colin Powell and other key leaders were cited by some as tipping the scales. Colin Powell became America’s next President. Many spoke of assassination attempts or the like, but surprisingly, the Secret Service never had to deal with an incident--at least as far as the pubic knew about. Powell’s wave kept a Republican majority on the hill, but just barely.

President Powell’s first hundred days saw the passage of a tougher crime bill with an expansion of the three-strikes and out policy. His administration came on the wings of economic recovery that was justification for his increase in taxes. Furthermore, he assured the American public that their military forces would be used to defend their interests, not to police arbitrarily. He was eager to see the implementation of the Security Council reforms by the next UN session in 2001 as had been agreed to in 1999. Besides this, he was able to secure a military cease-fire in the island of Cyprus from both Turkey and Greece in June of 2000, even after former Presidents Clinton and Carter attempted to do the same. NATO presence in the area helped assure that as UN forces were in transition, peace would remain.

By November 1, 2001 President Powell was still not willing to engage the Cuban delegation about the lease of Guantanamo Bay and also assured the Castro regime that until the United States was secure and willing, the lease would not be terminated and that Americans would remain there. Fidel Castro of of Cuba merely responded with rhetoric but it has yet to be determined what Powell is prepared to do and how far this dispute will escalate.

The United States has endured yet another recession in the aftermath of the crises that erupted in the middle east and southeast Asia as the millennium drew to a close. In 1998, after six years of successive growth, economic indicators showed a steady succession of decline for the months of February, March and April. This began a slight recession that ended with the easing of tension among players in the Hormuz Straits and the Taiwan Straits. Reasonably well founded fears led many to believe that the events surrounding the Hong Kong transition and the skirmishes along Asian trade routes would severely cripple the ever expanding global economy. Nevertheless, by the end of Security Council-sponsored cease-fires, UN envoy James Baker III, the former Secretary of State, was able to postpone future conflict and bring about more diplomatically oriented confrontations.

The American economy has recovered from that recession, but it is obvious that another incident in the Gulf could seriously affect the prices of gasoline to levels unprecedented. Gasoline prices had reached $1.75 at one point during the crises in Saudi Arabia and the United States has secured agreements from the new King Faysal which maintain it’s favorable trading rights.

The United States has once again put on hold its initiatives to reduce its nuclear stock-hold. Recent incidents and skirmishes in volatile areas and with players holding nuclear weapons have made the Powell administration rethink their foreign policy. In Congress, Secretary Carlucci explained that the United States must pursue a policy of containment. This required "maintaining the status-quo defense mechanisms in terms of nuclear capability, while encouraging other nations to follow. The weapons race must be stopped before we can think of reduction. Hopefully, we will be able to return to reduction strategies once the issues in Taiwan, India, and Iran can be resolved." The budget for defense has increased to 4.9% GDP according to a 1999 estimate at $299.2 billion. Once again, military expenditures are rising with the American public’s support as the United States patrols the world.

Bibliography

Sources for these briefs range from our minds to A Quick and Dirty Guide to War, 1996 by Bay and Dunnigan to the CIA Country Briefs to the US Dept of State Country Background Briefs to dozens of other random sources, people, and drunken discussions. For those really interested people, you may write me for a complete bibliography.

Located in the Mediterranean just south of Turkey, the island nation of Cyprus continues to be haunted by conflict. At the time of it’s independence in 1960, about 78% of the population were Greek Cypriots as opposed to 18% Turkish Cypriots. The Greek Cypriots overwhelmingly belong to the Greek Orthodox Church while an almost identical proportion (about 95%) of the Turkish Cypriots are Islamic. For many years the two ethnic groups lived with together dispersed throughout the island. Surprisingly enough, it was only after the granting of independence that this ethnic diversity began to produce rifts in the political stability of Cyprus. The Cyprus problem, simple in its essence, has been complicated through foreign intervention and has grown into a major dispute endangering peace in the sensitive Mediterranean region with its repercussions felt almost all over the world. The Cyprus problem has been in the international foreground for a long time, occupying the United Nations and other international for almost without pause for the last thirty years. During this period the world organization has been actively involved in peace operations and mediation efforts.

In fact, 1963 marked the year when Cyprus was forced to ask the UN Security Council for help due to civil unrest. Violence was taking hold of the populace and was destroying the fabric of normal life. In response, on March 4, 1964, the Security Council created the United Nations Peace-keeping force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

When Cyprus was granted independence in 1960, the UK, Greece and Turkey stipulated in an agreement (The Treaty of Guarantee) that they would ensure the independence of the country and adherence to its constitutional provisions. Moreover, this same agreement stated that if need be, the respective nations would try to deal with a Cyprus problem collectively; however, each nation reserved the right in the end to proceed independently. In light of this, following a 1974 coup d’etat led by Greek Cypriots, Turkey invaded the island. It cited that the new Cypriot government was oppressing the Turkish Cypriot minority and that it sought unification with Greece.

The Security Council met to dices the matter and ever since then has rejected Turkey’s explanations. Adopting Resolution 353/1974, the Security Council condemned Turkey’s actions and called for an immediate withdrawal of Turkish forces thereby full acknowledging the sovereignty of Cyprus. Many resolutions have followed since then, all disapproving of Turkey’s invasion. In the face of international disfavor, Turkey launched another invasion and went on to occupy the northern region of the island. It then began what has been deemed a form of ethnic cleansing in the aftermath. Numbers for missing Greek Cypriots as a result of the invasion by Turkey remain vague, but most figures center around 1600 people. What resulted was the "expulsion" of almost all Greek Cypriots from Northern Cyprus and likely the same from the South for Turkish Cypriots. Human rights violations were enormous--such that in a recent aid package to Turkey, the United States specified that 10% of the aid was conditionally given subject to Turkey’s cooperation in investigating its human rights violations and dealing accordingly with related issues. Interestingly enough, the Turkish government rejected the conditional 10%.

In 1975, the Turkish occupied land in Northern Cyprus was declared to be a Federated Turkish State guaranteed by Turkey. Years later, in 1983, Turkish Cypriots declared this to be the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and unilaterally declared its independence from Cyprus. Since then only Turkey has recognized the TRNC. Security Council Resolution 367/1975 "regretted" the announcement of the Federated Turkish State and all resolutions since have not recognized the republic but, in fact, reiterate over and over again the sovereignty of Cyprus proper. A defacto cease-fire has been in place for years secured by the UNFICYP, which protects a buffer zone extending across Northern Cyprus and the South border occupying a total of 3% of land from Cyprus.

The Security Council had adopted many resolutions calling for mediated negotiation. Although Secretary-generals have come and gone along with their mediation attempts, no accord has be reached. This has to do with the fundamental differences between the conflicting groups. Turkey has secured the TRNC with over 55, 000 troops and has pledged to do more if warranted. The government of Cyprus has itself continued to increase its military capabilities. Secretary-General reports on the prospects for negotiation hold high hopes, but understand the inherent difficulty in arriving at a solution. Cyprus wants a bi-communal federation and Northern Cyprus wants independence (with the force to back this up). Without a serious desire for compromising, nothing can happen. Secretary-General reports S/21183, S/26026, S/2899 and S/21160 particularly outline goals that may be conceivable, but again, both require a different mind-set from both parties. Nevertheless, the Security Council has continually agreed that the status-quo is not acceptable and that the Cyprus vision is most adequate (649/1990, 939/1994, 324/1998, 559/2001).

In light of continuing military presence, the Security Council has been met with no choice but to continue with its UNFICYP mission. Recent financial restraints have made it difficult to maintain the level of security once guaranteed by the Security Council (831/1993, 1000/1995, 1234/1997). The decrease in UN presence and apparent increase in Turkey’s forces has led the government of Cyprus and Greece to become military allies. In 1993, both countries reached an agreement which will grant Cyprus extra military personnel, air jets, and other equipment. There have been more recent incidents along the buffer zone due to lack in UNFICYP personnel resulting in fewer patrols and the arms build-up of both areas. As late as 199 and again in 2000, Greek military personnel have been moved to the Island of Cyprus in an effort to counter Turkish support of the renewed fighting. This perilous scenario could escalate into a decisive armed conflict where two NATO members, namely Greece and Turkey, could get into direct conflict.

The most recent event took place early in 2000. A Turkish jet violated Cyprus’ airspace which led Cyprus to seek recourse in the UN. Becoming frustrated, the government of Cyprus pointed to the lack of power in the Security Council resolutions due to their lack of implementation. In particular, Cyprus has withstood 36 years of inaction in any real direct way from the UN. Nevertheless, the Cyprus government can rest more easily once its Greek air-defense is in place on Cyprus. Expanded air-strips are causing concern in Turkey and may be the turning point for more conflict outside of Cyprus.

Cyprus has wanted to become a member of the EU for a long time and finally submitted its application in 1990. Negotiations for full accession into the EU are scheduled for some time in 1996. This is producing some tension on the island. For instance, the EU had trouble allowing Cyprus even to apply due to the political pressures it was facing. Now Cyprus is hoping that entrance in to the EU will give it the leverage it needs to end the conflict decisively. However, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Murat Karayalicin stated in March, 1995 that if the EU accepted Cyprus, then Turkey would be forced to annex the TRNC. Obviously, this produced an angry response from the president of Cyprus and the international community. Adding to this, Turkey’s claims against Greece to parts of the Aegean Sea are fostering increased animosity in the region; Cyprus could be the battle ground. As Cyprus approaches the EU, definite conflicts will arise. It is a fragile situation that places Cyprus in a difficult situation. It does not want to force a conflict because of its EU needs; nonetheless, annexation of the TRNC demands a response. Though this time, Greece would surely become involved as would Turkey making negotiation now an absolute necessity.

Military equipment from Greece will soon bolster the arsenal of this divided island, where Turkish guns in the Kyrenia mountains point at the bustling prosperity of the Greek Cypriot side. "If there is a solution to the island's division, money spent on defense could be spent on the advancement of the Turkish community", Greek Cypriot government spokesman Yiannakis Cassoulides said last week.

The search for a solution has become a slogan, repeated not so much with conviction but as a patriotic and political exercise. The Turkish Cypriots have not budged, mired in slogans of their own, secure behind a cordon of come 70,000 well dug-in Turkish troops. At the same time, the Greek Cypriots have prospered creating in their part of the island a hive of business activity unparalleled in the eastern Mediterranean.

Virtually daily, gleaming office buildings are completed. More than 1,000 foreign firms have offices in the area under Greek Cypriot control and more than 2 million tourists - four times the number of Greek Cypriots - visit the southern portion of the island annually. And last week, it announced the $75 million purchase of 43 armored personnel carriers from Russia and said it is considering buying Russian T-80 tanks. A new defense budget will be approved shortly.

Once again, Turkey has shrugged off international protests, insisting that it is merely trying to eliminate a Marxist guerrilla movement threatening its stability. Turkish Prime Minister, Tansu Ciller had her hopes for U.S. support during her Washington visit this week, when U.S. officials reiterated the view that Turkey is a pivotal state and guardian of Western security where Europe and Asia meet. For years, European officials have insisted that Turkey must first end its 36-year military presence in Northern Cyprus and improve its much-criticized human-rights record.

The Cyprus deadlock stems from a variety of factors, involving the traditional animosity between Turkey and Greece, whose fallout is being played out just 40 miles from the Turkish coastline in Cyprus. The Turkish Cypriots, whose minority of 18 percent has been bolstered by thousands of settlers from Turkey, want equal partnership in any form of federation, including equal voice in government , budgetary matters and control of half of the abandoned and forlorn Nicosia airport. They feel that any other solution would be to their detriment, in spite of the economic advantages promised by the Greek Cypriots.

Backed by the Turkish government in Ankara, the Turkish Cypriots have rejected various unification proposals approved by the United Nations. Their leaders feel they have little to gain from giving up their Ankara protected quasi-independence. So Cyprus remains divided, with a striking contrast between the Western prosperity of the Greek Cypriots and the drifting economy of the North. The Turkish Cypriots have re-elected veteran politician Rauf Denktash to his third term as president. Many Greek Cypriots felt that a new man would have enhanced the prospect of a solution, obviously ignoring the purely strategic requirements of the Turkish army, which regards Cyprus as an essential link in its defenses. And in Turkey, the military usually has the last word.

For many years negotiations have failed. Presently, the DMZ enforced by UN troops and particularly by NATO units has been a result of a carefully crafted cease-fire following a series of bloody battles between 1997-2001. President Powell, Prime Minister Blair, and Chancellor Scharping have placed a large number of troops in Cyprus proper to tame Turkey but are unwilling to take sides so far. Nevertheless, there remains tense opposition to the tactics of Turkey in preventing even debate for Cyprus in the EU to arise. In fact, some attribute the ‘accidental" triggering of more fighting to Turkey as a response to 1997 considerations for EU membership. Prospects for future negotiations seem dim. Unfortunately the alternatives are frightening. Allowing this old conflict to culminate in a possible war would be disastrous. Obviously, more compelling resolutions must be passed. The animosity between Turkey and Greece will surely play a factor.

The Spratly Islands are barely visible by sight on most maps and are excluded altogether from some. Located in the South China Sea, this collection of about thirty-five low-lying coral reefs have very few inhabitants. Although it houses few people, it nevertheless is home to what some consider to be vast deposits of oil, many minerals, and gas. The region is also able to sustain a thriving fishing industry. Control of these islands is thus of great importance to the parties involved because they are possible treasures in the waiting.

Because the islands are so close to the other nations involved, there are problems insofar as it is understood that a nation’s borders can extend twelve nautical miles to the sea. But more importantly, the border extends up to 200 nautical miles as an economic zone solely used by that country. This leaves China with a definite advantage. Overlapping zones are what makes the conflict so difficult to resolve.

In 1974 and 1978, PRC seized islands from Vietnam. Even so, Vietnam still holds many of the islands. The other nations began to back their claims by placing military bases and airstrips in their occupied islands. Increasing militarization of the zone eventually led to some combat between Vietnam and PRC in 1988. Vietnam had never acknowledged the claim by China to the islands it occupied in 1978 and it was ready to recapture them. Nearly eighty Vietnamese were killed in the ensuing naval battle, but China still held its ground. Today, all six nation retain their claims to part or all of the region. In light of the cold war’s end, military confrontations seem more likely, especially as China asserts itself in the South China Sea as the dominant power.

After the 1988 battle, more of an incentive for negotiation of the disputes seemed prudent. So in 1992, members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China attempted to quell tension by promoting restraint on the part of all the players involved. Nonetheless, mere restraint has not resolved the territorial disputes and has led to ongoing military build-up. Ironically, the PRC in late 1994 put up cement markers along islands and waters claimed by the Philippines. Upon discovering these markers, the Philippine government authorized the dispatch of jet fighters and navy ships to the region.

In March, 1995, these fighters destroyed the markers and captured the crew of Chinese fishing boats in the region. They cited that China had disregarded the Philippines’ claim to the region which lay within their 200 mile economic zone. Only until the first week in October, 1995 were the fishermen prisoners released. Adding to the fragile state of affairs in the Spratly region, Taiwan called off a naval mission already underway in late March because of the seriousness of the situation during that period. Finally, China fueled the fire even more by seeming to promote an expansionist policy when in April it published maps depicting the island of Natuna (owned by Indonesia) as part of their territory. The PRC could be drawing other nations into serious disputes over sovereignty.

More recently, the Chinese have attempted to begin drilling in some of their claimed islands in an effort to remove their dependency on mainland reserves. This triggered a response by way of air-strikes from the Philippines prompting added security patrols of the region by Japan and the United States. Indonesia particularly is in the midst of a bitter negotiation over the claim that China has "suggested be recognized by Indonesia over Natuna Island." In 1998, a series of minor naval battles took place along the stretch of the islands that came dangerously close to hitting a Japanese trade vessel.

Since the close encounter, Japanese officials have tried to broker talks to no avail. Presently, all of the claimants to the islands are gearing up for conflict as military expenditures in the region have almost tripled in the past few years. Secretary Carlucci of the United States and his colleagues have tried mediation as well, but it is obvious that General Tse feels the islands are of incredible strategic importance.

In late September, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Mathew Barker, stated that he had concerns over the readily apparent expansionist policies of China. He went so far as to compare the PRC to the former Soviet Union in reference to the USSR’s forceful acquisition of eastern European and Baltic nations.

In fact, a similar comparison can be made. With the end of the cold war, most nations have been down-sizing their military and decreasing expenditures accordingly. On the other hand, China has increased its defense expenditure by 20.6% between 1990 and 1993. Decreased military presence by the US, the UK and other countries has given a proverbial green light for this race. Within the same time frame the US and Russia have decreased their military expenditures by 11.2% and 44.5% respectively. China’s increasing militarization has forced southeast Asian countries to build-up their own forces as well, making the Spratly Islands region one of the most militarized areas today. And since 1997, the United States, Japan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and a host of other nations have commensuartely increased their own military presence.

China is not only facing trouble in the Spratly region. As noted above, the PRC has virtually made a claim for Natuna. Aside from this, it has border conflicts with areas in India and is holding to its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. The most troubling concern has to be that China’s oil resources are becoming depleted, making the acquisition of the possibly fully stocked Spratly Islands almost a necessity. To make matters more complicated, the Natuna island is to be drilled shortly according to a $35 billion dollar agreement between Indonesia and the American based company Exxon. Indeed, motivations for China’s expansion are present and its government has made it very clear that abuse of its "sovereignty" in the Spratly region would be subject to the treatment Vietnam received in 1988 and in 1998.

Reaeed Interactive 1999 has recently produced a statistical report pointing to the ridiculous disadvantage at which Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines are placed. In 1999, China had 61 submarine vessels compared to 3 by the other nations involved in the dispute. It has 65 destroyers and frigates compared with 7 and 1 for Vietnam and the Philippines (besides 3 for Taiwan); 870 patrol and coastal aircraft to less than a hundred from both Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Finally, China’s combat aircraft number over 6000 while the other nations cannot even assemble a tenth of that (save Taiwan) --not to mention China’s nuclear capabilities.

What makes matters so complicated is that China refuses to engage in discussions with ASEAN although the other nations are willing to undertake discussions. Over the years, mediation has become less sought for. The United Nations recently approached the Philippines, Taiwan, and China for mediation, but both refused. China prefers to deal with each of it’s smaller counterparts individually, not collectively--which has led some governments to become suspicious of China.

The international community, on the other hand, is somewhat limiting the PRC’s actions. If China were to overstep it’s bounds it could be severely castigated. It could be hit with devastating sanctions and lead to an even more destabilized zone.

Unfortunately for the other nations involved, there are few places they can count on for assistance. China holds veto-power in the Security Council and this almost guarantees the nullification of any help for the other nations. For the Philippines and Taiwan, its major ally in the US has already declared that it will not become involved. But this could change if China decides to tamper with Natuna and the American oil drilling going on there or with Taiwanese independence. Japan remains in the background and keeps silent. It needs for this region to remain as stabilized as much as possible for its trading routes to remain in place and be guaranteed by China’s might. But it is rapidly working to replace this need with its own fleet.

The only nation that may have justified recourse other than Taiwan is Malaysia with the region’s only formal pact of defense called the Five Power Defense Agreement (FPDA). The FPDA includes the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. If Malaysia were to become involved in conflict, the pact could conceivably draw the UK and the members into it; however, the possibility of a UK involvement are rather low.

The possibility for military confrontations is very strong in the South China Sea. As the arms race continues, there is less chance to conceive of mediation. Noting that other avenues for negotiation are being ignore in 1999 and again in 2000, it behooves the United Nations to somehow resolve the issue. As time progresses, it is unlikely that the umbrella of an apparently expansionist China will fold. In response, the Philippines is rapidly boosting their defense program to a point where they could defend their claims within their 200 mile zone. This hot spot could lead to a devastating conflict for the region. Regardless of the odds, the stakes are too high. The UN Security Council must attempt to resolve the dispute.