Democratic Transition and Structural Factors

Structural Factors Matter

Structural factors are most important when one tries to explain social and political developments. This is because only institutions could create an enabling environment for a particular course to succeed. For example, Barkan (2000) argues that although individual agency has been an important variable of African transitions, agency has been and will continue to be exercised within a strong set of structural constraints. It is this set of constraints that has given rise to the protracted nature of democratic transition on the continent.

One of the biggest constraints to democratisation is poor economy. Most of the emerging democracies lack enough resources even to conduct regular elections. As a result, these new comers have been relying on donor community for democracy assistance. For example, Ottaway and Chung (2002) who expressed their worry of the heavy cost of financing elections, civil-society organisations, and political parties by international donors. LDC countries are receiving financial, technical, educational support from international donors in the long run due to their poor incomes. Because of this, they cannot continue to sustain progress of the work established or supported by donors, hence threatens the sustainability of democracy.

This is consistent with Przeworski et al (1996) who reveal that once a country has a democratic regime, its level of economic development has a very strong effect on the probability that democracy will survive. Poor democracies, particularly those with annual per capita income of less than USD 1,000, are extremely fragile: the probability that one will die during a particular year is 0.12 (ibid). Above USD 6,000, democracies are impregnable and can be expected to live forever: no democratic system has ever fallen in a country where per capital income exceeds USD 6055 (Argentina level in 1976). Hence, Seymour Martin Lipset was correct to assert that "the more well-to-do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy".

I will try to convey a view of northern Cyprus at the point of starting its transition process of democratisation yet with insufficient international support. In 1974 Cyprus partitioned into two as north and south. In the south Greekcypriots and in the north Turkishcypriots. The southern part remained free and through international aid in twenty years´ time it improved its economic, administrative, and civil-society. However, the northern part came under the occupation of Turkey despite international opposition. As a result, post war north Cyprus became isolated from all international aid to improving its economic, administrative, and civil-society due to embargoes. International embargoes aggravated to its goods, administration, and civil-society organistions especially as it declared itself as a sovereign state on 15^th November, 1985, only recognised by Turkey and internationally not recognised as it is under occupation, which a UN decision of the Security Council on 17^th November, 1985 also declared it breakaway TRNC (Turkish Rep of Northern Cyprus) illegal.

The subordinate regime of Turkey started an integration programme in economics, administration, legislation, civil-society, e.g. and therefore enormous amounts of money poured in the country in the hands of the elite who are the supporters of the regime. This was promoted as a part of a sovereign and democratic Turkish Cyprus stressing nationality and being the `baby` of the ´Motherland Turkey´ as if she is a democratic country founded on Turkish leader Mustafa Kemal Ataturk´s Kemalism.

On the other hand civil-society completely left out of democratization and economic development as financial aid from Turkey only channeled to the corrupted superficial class of elites created by the occupation and its supporters. The Turkishcypriot civil society being isolated from international recognition which also led to its lack of support for building a democratic society.

It took more than 25 years to form a `unified` platform of civil society organisations when a solution of Cyprus Problem came to be realised that it is the only option to recognition and breaking international isolation. 91 civil society organisation came together and it is called This Country is Ours Platform. The platform managed to be built in almost three decades as the country has been occupied and unrecognized, lacked international funding and support for democratisation. In addition, ordinary citizens have been bombarded by the nationalist media of the official political view of the regime. And the regime´s attitude against the opposition had been enough arbitrary from firing teachers from their jobs, as the teachers´ unions have been the strongest opposition against the policies of the regime, to the assassination of prominent journalists in connection with the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) and military components on the north, to bombings of a prominent opposition newspaper Avrupa-Afrika, confiscation of their properties, jailing and trying journalists in the military court.

The international community recognised the situation of the discontent civil-society. However, still there is not any international assistance or support for a democratic transition as still the Denktashist regime and Cyprus problem are preventing international donors to assist and fund the community. European Union revelead that if a solution is reached before 1 May, 2004, it will fund norhtern Cyprus. It is unfortunate to see that this was the precondition of the EU. Or the rest of the international community rather announced support which has not been materialized yet. One of the main reasons for that is due to the ongoing problem of the division of island which imprisons Turkishcypriots in poor economy isolated from the rest of the world and results the community incapable of maintenance of democratic transition. However, in case of a viable and just solution the community´s democratic transition will be on robust grounds which will lead to a democratic society.

Barkan, J.D. "Protracted Transitions Among Africa's New Democracies" in Democratozation, Vol. 7, No. 3, Autumn 2000, pp. 227-243, Frank Class, London.

Przeworski, A. et al (1996) "What Makes Democracies Endure?" in Journal of Democracy, No. 7, pp.39-55, John Hopkins University Press.

Ottaway, M. and Chung, T. (1999) "Toward a New Paradigm" in Journal of Democracy, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp.4, John Hopkins University Press

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