Konuk Yazar, 19 Temmuz 2001
Murat Ilican
A bird’s eye view on the Turkish transition
Turkey is currently going through a complex and difficult process. The result of this will be that the country will either give birth to a new socio-economic and political system unleashing the potential of its people and its power, or it will find itself becoming more and more isolated, inward-looking and on a constant offence or defense position against the international world, depending on what the internal and external pressures at the time may be. The process of transition will certainly be painful given the long years of neglect and political stagnation, but yet rewarding in the medium to long term if the right policies are drawn and implemented with a vision. The politics and the politicians of the country are one of the first things that need to be reformed, primarily so as to set an example for the rest of the country and enable the needed reforms to pave the way forward.
The February devaluation crisis has taken the country deep into continuing social and economic unrest and resulted in nation-wide protests and demands by the people for a new and improved way of life with high economic and social standards as well as a reformed, ‘clean’ political and economic system. The three-way coalition government of Mr. Ecevit has just barely managed to hold on to the power and appointed a new face, Mr. Kemal Dervis, to be the new super minister of the economy. Mr. Dervis not only inspires confidence among the public, but also drafted the new economic program aiming for a transition to a strong economy with sustainable development. However, the road ahead is still full of obstacles and hardship with no more chance of making a mistake. Dervis is trying to persuade different social groups to support his program and the IMF and the politicians are desperately trying to pass all the required laws and regulations through the parliament set as pre-requisites for the success of the new program. Due to the lack of confidence in the government of Mr. Ecevit and the political establishment at large, both the foreigners, seen as sources of urgently needed hot funds, and the Turkish public at large are watching closely and waiting to see actions rather than words.
Ankara is shaking with new emerging scandals involving high-level politicians and civil servants as well as influential businessmen. As a positive outcome of a nation-wide clean-up operations for corruption, more and more people are being brought to justice causing a lot of pain to many influential circles formerly feeding on the nation and its people. The political party leaders are frequently drawn into the discussions about corruption allegations and the ministers and the members of the parliament are constantly arguing and discussing in order to eliminate the difference of opinion on new laws and reforms. Two crucial reforms especially, namely that of the banking and telecommunications systems, have yet to be materialized and are put as a condition by the IMF to approve the fresh, urgently-needed foreign funds in the range of $10-15billion. In short, Ankara is probably going through the most painful period of its recent history.
Meanwhile, according to a recent poll conducted some weeks ago, 53.9% of the people wanted the government to resign with only 31.5% giving their support. A majority 58.8% was against the government, claiming that there is no other alternative to the current three-way coalition government. The poll further showed that if there were to be elections soon, many Turks would not vote for the existing political parties. 39.6% would vote for “none of the existing parties” and the second largest group with 10.2% claimed to be “undecided”. Both the ruling and opposition parties in Turkey failed to pass the crucial 10% barrier in order to have representation in the parliament.
With regards to the rating of the leaders: The president, Mr. Sezer received 7.4 out of 10. Mr. Ecevit, Mr. Bahceli and Mr. Yilmaz as heads of the three political parties in the current coalition government received 1.4, 2.1, 1.5 respectively failing miserably. The military with the 5.9 rating was the second most trusted state body after the Presidency. Mr. Kemal Dervis received a 4.9 rating making him the second best trustworthy individual after the President.
The poll demonstrated the growing anger and mistrust of the people to the current political system and its leaders. It also indicated the fact that the new, honest faces with a forward looking vision -just like year-old president Sezer and even more recently appointed Dervis- will be rewarded and supported by the public at large. The people no longer want to be dragged down by the politicians, but would rather see them paving the way ahead for them and the country.
The main fight, however, is between the reformist and the status-quo supporters at the top of the state and in the large, slow and complex bureaucratic system. On one hand there exists a vision shared by a huge portion of the society towards a more democratic and transparent country built on the emerging norms of the new global (dis) order. On the other hand, there is a view that focuses on the theories of mistrust and conspiracy towards the local inhabitants as well as the other global nations. For many years, the important social, political and economic reforms have been postponed and the country paid a very high prize with current national debt exceeding $150 billion and deteriorated social and political standards. Many small and few big power centers emerged as economic and political parasites feeding on the young and hard working dynamic, but yet helpless population. Given the prevailing crisis and the running out of patience of the Turkish people however, a radical change is a must whose urgency stems from the need to bail out the future of the country.